Why soaring stocks could be bad news for the economy

A screen in Hana Bank's trading room in central Seoul shows the Kospi closing at 2,322.64 points on Wednesday, down 45.35 points, or 1.91 percent, from the previous trading day. [YONHAP] Stocks plunged by almost 2 percent Thursday to slump for a second straight session amid recession woes and a dim outlook for the chipmaking sector. The won rose against the dollar. The Kospi retreated 45.35 points, or 1.91 percent, to close at 2,332.64 points. Trading volume was moderate at about 506 million shares worth some 8.7 trillion won ($6.7 billion), with losers outnumbering gainers 699 to 183. Institutional investors offloaded a net 321 billion won, and foreigners sold 234 billion won, while retail investors bought 521 billion won. Investors remained cautious after a near 2 percent fall on Wednesday, spooked by soaring inflation and weak economic sentiment data in the United States. Overnight, the central bank chiefs of major economies warned that the world's high inflation … [Read more...] about Stocks fall almost 2% for second straight session

The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely. The current campaign by the US Federal Reserve to raise its main policy interest rate — the overnight federal funds rate — in response to rapid inflation normally precipitates a business downturn. Since the central bank adopted this measure in 1954, there have been 11 recessions, and only three exceptions, or soft landings — in 1966, 1984 and 1996. A soft landing occurs as the central bank lowers the funds rate after a series of increases with no recession unfolding. Until the Fed cuts rates, it’s uncertain as to whether its credit-tightening campaign is over or has merely paused. My analysis of post-World War II history reveals that a 100-basis-point rise in the funds rate is linked to a 36-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury note yield, and a 24-basis-point increase in the 30-year Treasury bond yield. … [Read more...] about Bond market rally signals an impending economic recession

- A + A (June 30): All emerging Asian currencies were set for half-yearly losses on Thursday, with the South Korean won set to lose the most, as policy tightening by the US central bank and concerns over global economic outlook spurred selling in Asian assets. The won dropped 8.4% so far this year, while the Philippine peso and Indian rupee were on track to post half-yearly losses of 7.3% and 5.8%, respectively. Emerging markets in the six-month period were battered by capital outflows due to the US Federal Reserve kicking off its tightening cycle, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and inflation from higher commodity prices. Among local drivers, China's insistence on a zero-Covid policy also spurred selling as the country's repeated imposition of restrictions means a slower economic recovery for the region's largest economy. "The broader market ... they need some more convincing because I think at the back of their mind, they've still got this hesitancy due to the … [Read more...] about Asian currencies set for half-year losses on rate hikes, inflation woes

- A + A BENGALURU (June 30): European shares on Thursday looked set for their worst quarter since the pandemic-led carnage in early 2020, as investors became increasingly wary of a global recession in the wake of hawkish central bank actions to tame rapid inflation. The continent-wide STOXX 600 index dropped 1.3%, setting it up for quarterly losses of more than 10%. France's CAC 40 index slid 1.8% as preliminary official figures showed inflation climbed further from the previous month to a record 6.5%. "What we're seeing at the moment is more evidence that inflation is serious, entrenched and investors are having to now reappraise the valuations they are putting on equities," said Azad Zangana, senior European economist and strategist at Schroders. "Now for a little while, the attitude in Europe was well a lot of the inflation is external. That's changing now and over the next few months, the European Central Bank will have to step up its efforts to curb … [Read more...] about European shares face worst quarter since pandemic-led carnage in early 2020

- A + A (June 30): It was an unusually frigid December weekend when Cheng Wei summoned his inner circle to his Beijing office. The founder of Didi Global Inc, dressed entirely in black, told his lieutenants to slash spending by a fifth in 2022 and begin layoffs after staff return from Lunar New Year vacations. He delivered his bombshell flanked by a giant Powerpoint slide that read: “Don’t live with illusions. Face reality.” “We had a tough year,” said the reserved billionaire known as Will, who that day seemed even gloomier than normal, according to people briefed on the gathering. “But next year will be even tougher.” That sombre gathering encapsulated what many in the room already suspected — the ride-hailing champion once feted for running Uber Technologies Inc out of China was no more. In its place was a defeated shell worth a fifth of its value at the peak, bleeding users, blocked from raising funds for cherished projects — and whose executives were constantly … [Read more...] about Inside Didi’s US$60b crash that changed China tech forever