When fed announces rate hike

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin As it worked to bring interest rates back toward neutral in the face of too-high inflation, before reassessing conditions, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been somewhat data-independent barring a “break the glass” moment. The Fed appears to have arrived at that moment. The Fed slammed on the inflation brakes hard on June 15, raising rates 75 basis points (bps). This action increases the risk of a policy error: if the Fed overtightens in trying to curb inflation, it could inadvertently slow the economy so much that it induces a recession rather than a “softish” landing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted as much the following week in testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. When asked if the Fed’s moves could lead to a recession, he replied, “It’s not our intended outcome at all, but it’s certainly a possibility.” Inflation remains a big problem: 8.6% against the Fed’s 2% target is akin to doing 73 miles … [Read more...] about Big Fed Rate Hike Risks Policy Error That Could Lead To Recession

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin When the Fed meet next week, it’s highly likely in the eyes of the both the bond markets and recent statements from Fed policymakers that rates rise. However, the prospect of a 50bps move that was suggested earlier this year is now largely off the table. However, looking beyond that, the market sees aggressive rate increased in 2022, perhaps more so than before the Ukraine invasion began. Commodity Spike A lot has changed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has, in part, pushed global stock markets generally lower and various commodities including energy and, notably, wheat far higher. Inflationary Pressures If anything inflation may increase further for 2022 as higher energy and other prices, if sustained, could feed into many other goods and services. That puts the Fed in a tricky position. Yes, geopolitical tensions may have increased risk and disrupted supply chains. That and higher gas prices hurting consumer’s … [Read more...] about Despite Ukraine, Markets Still See Aggressive Fed Action This Year

The 25-basis-point (bp) increase in the key interest rate of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced on Thursday that affirmed a gradual path to tightening of monetary policy was a disappointment to analysts who believe the BSP should be more aggressive. But Pantheon Macroeconomics said the next hike might not come until next year. Miguel Chanco, the United Kingdom-based research firm’s chief economist for emerging markets in Asia, said in a commentary that this week’s rate hike—a repeat of the Monetary Board (MB) decision in their meeting last May—was “a no-brainer.” Chanco said this was so, especially considering that BSP Governor and MB chair Benjamin Diokno had explicitly said that this month’s decision was likely a 25-bp increase in the interest rate on the central bank’s overnight borrowings from banks. “Not surprisingly, inflation remains front-and-center in the board’s mind, as it raised its inflation forecasts further to 5 percent and 4.2 percent for this year … [Read more...] about Contrarians see BSP pushing back next rate hike to 2023

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Interest Rates On The Rise With interest rates on the move, due to the Fed’s latest rate hike , there are winners and losers galore. One of the areas we haven’t paid much attention to for years is our savings accounts. For most of us, we have been beaten into submission, simply accepting the laughable interest we’ve been getting. If you’ve been with a traditional bank the savings interest rate has been, well, insulting. Some banks have been paying as low as 0.1% on some of their savings accounts. How Your Savings Account May Change What has changed is with the Fed’s announcement of a .25% rate increase, banks will have to adjust to keep up. Of course, lending rates will increase as well, but the big winner here is your cash savings rates. When the Fed increases their rates, banks in lockstep will increase what they are paying to park money at their bank, generally speaking. Essentially, it is exactly the outcome the … [Read more...] about What Rising Interest Rates Mean For Your Savings Accounts

Jayanth Varma, one of the three external members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has said the rate-setting panel's members should start taking the first steps to providing interest rates projections by initially giving their individual views on where they see the policy rate in the near-term. "I believe it is possible to start with baby steps and proceed gradually towards the desired goal," Varma told Moneycontrol via e-mail. "It is possible to start with projections only for the next quarter and slowly expand the horizon. It is possible to begin with broad ranges for the policy rate and then progressively refine the range. These are all matters of implementation detail. The important thing is to have a consensus on whether this is worth doing." Varma's comments come after he was cited as saying in the minutes of the June 6-8 meeting, released on June 22, that the time was "ripe" for the committee's members to start moving towards providing … [Read more...] about MPC members can start with near-term interest rate forecasts, says Jayanth Varma

UOB: Room for Bank Negara to hike OPR by another 50bps before end-September - A + A KUALA LUMPUR (June 22): There is growing pressure on Bank Negara Malaysia to hike rates faster in the face of an aggressive US Federal Reserve, while there is widening consensus that global food and energy prices will continue to stay elevated for longer, with any potential supply shocks seen capable of driving prices and inflation even higher. In a note on Wednesday, UOB Global Economics and Market Research cautioned that the key takeaway is that "doing nothing or acting too slow" could sow seeds of more persistent and elevated inflation in the future, with more negative effects on demand and the economy. "Rate hikes would then also need to be sharper and more abrupt in that scenario. There may also be a need to act faster now in order to have sufficient policy buffers in preparation for the next recession (when it happens). A lagged policy response by BNM relative to peers … [Read more...] about Growing pressure on Bank Negara to hike rates faster

- A + A (June 23): JPMorgan Chase & Co. is laying off hundreds of home-lending employees and reassigning hundreds more this week as rapidly rising mortgage rates drive down demand in what had been a red-hot housing market. The total affected will be more than 1,000 US workers, with about half moved to different divisions within the bank, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing personnel matters. “Our staffing decision this week was a result of cyclical changes in the mortgage market,” a JPMorgan spokesperson said in a statement Wednesday. “We were able to proactively move many impacted employees to new roles within the firm, and are working to help the remaining affected employees find new employment within Chase and externally.” The cuts follow the Federal Reserve’s decision to boost interest rates to tame decades-high inflation. Last week, the Fed announced an increase of 75 basis points, the biggest hike since … [Read more...] about JPMorgan lays off hundreds in home lending after rate surge

Prateek Agrawal is the Business Head & CIO at ASK Investment Managers “Overall, I would stay focussed on earnings and valuations and policy making in India rather than what is happening elsewhere. This should be especially true because the influence of foreign capital on the Indian market is reducing,"  Prateek Agrawal - Business Head and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of ASK Investment Managers, told Moneycontrol in an interview. Large FPI selling has been readily absorbed by MFs, insurance, Pension and PF funds and this is a structural change that has taken place, he believes. Agrawal's preferred valuation methodology, at present, is to look at 5-year PE averages and earnings yield to bond yield indicators. "These indicators point to an index target of 18,250 to 18,500 over 2022. This leaves just about 7 percent upside from the present levels," says Agrawal, who has over 27 years of experience in capital markets, with long, distinguished stints in sell side research, … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | With valuations no longer cheap, volatility could recur: Prateek Agrawal of ASK Investment Managers

"A good Rabi crop harvest is now critical for rural demand revival and, in turn, improvement in pricing power of different industries,"  Ashutosh Tiwari, Managing Director-Equities,  Equirus, said in an interview with Moneycontrol. After a significant rise in commodity prices, he feels margins are likely to remain under pressure due to commodity inflation as well as an increase in freight costs due to the rise in diesel prices, and believes that price increases by corporates will be gradual. Hence, margin normalisation will take 2-3 quarters if commodity prices stabilise, says Tiwari, who has more than a decade of experience in equity research. Edited excerpts: Do you think the Fed action going ahead will be a bigger cue than the Ukraine-Russia war now, for the equity market? The Ukraine-Russia war seems to be priced in by the market. Fed rates are likely to go up to the level of 2-2.25 percent over the next one year, driven by inflation. If there is a further increase in … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | Margin normalisation will take 2-3 quarters if commodity prices stabilise: Ashutosh Tiwari of Equirus

Fed chair Jerome Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday downplayed the idea that government pandemic aid was the key factor fueling US inflation, instead blaming a confluence of global issues including the war in Ukraine. While stimulus spending was a factor, "a great deal of the price increases that you saw were a matter of supply being unable to meet demand" and "when demand hits fixed supply, what happens is prices go up," Powell told lawmakers. US inflation has surged to a 40-year high, picking up speed in recent months as the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent fuel and food prices soaring, with gas at more than $5 a gallon for the first time -- putting strain on American families. Opposition Republicans have blamed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan approved last year for the blistering price increases. But Powell, who was testifying Thursday before a House committee, and others have noted that inflation is a … [Read more...] about Fed chief Jerome Powell says pandemic aid not primary driver of US inflation