Representative image The Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates until it squashes the highest inflation in decades is darkening the outlook across Wall Street, as U.S. stocks stand on the cusp of a bear market and warnings of a recession grow louder. At issue is the so-called Fed put, or investors’ belief that the Fed will take action if stocks fall too deeply, even though it has no mandate to maintain asset prices. One oft-cited example of the phenomenon, which is named after a hedging derivative used to protect against market falls, occurred when the Fed halted a rate hiking cycle in early 2019 after a stock market tantrum. Also Read: Global stocks rebound despite unease over economy; dollar gains This time around, the Fed’s insistence that it will raise rates as high as needed to tame surging inflation has bolstered the argument that policymakers will be less sensitive to market volatility - threatening more pain for investors. read more A recent … [Read more...] about As bear market looms, battered Wall Street seeks elusive ‘Fed put’
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Global stocks rebound despite unease over economy; dollar gains
Global equity markets rebounded after the S&P 500 pared losses that briefly took it into bear market territory, and the dollar gained on Friday, as investor unease about Federal Reserve policy tightening to curb inflation kindled fears of a recession. Shares rebounded earlier in Europe and Asia after China cut a key lending benchmark to bolster its weakening economy, helping initially to drive gains on Wall Street. China cut its prime rate for five-year loans, which influences mortgage prices, by 15 basis points in a reduction that was sharper than expected as authorities seek to cushion the impact of an economic slowdown. Also Read: Indian markets should be moving upwards next week, says IIFL’s Sanjiv Bhasin While a late-day rally stopped the S&P 500 from confirming a bear market, the gloom on Wall Street led the benchmark to fall for the seventh consecutive week, an event that has occurred only five times since 1928, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. … [Read more...] about Global stocks rebound despite unease over economy; dollar gains
Dual Bond And Stock Bear Markets Look Likely
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Everybody's talking about higher inflation and rising interest rates, but are they worried? Not really. The Fed's on the case, so investors are asking, "Which investments are best to buy?" Barron's has the answer on its January 17 cover (underlining is mine): "2022 Roundtable - Our experts see a strong economy, a volatile market, and a good time for bargain hunting . " Turning to the article for stock ideas, we run into a cautious title, " Time to Buckle Up ," based on this summary: " Wall Street's pandemic-era party appears to be ending. Stocks, bonds, crypto, you name it - almost every asset class has hit a rough patch since 2022 dawned, and things could get worse before they begin to get better . That's the consensus of the 10 investors on Barron's Roundtable, which met this year on Jan. 10, on Zoom. The group looks for inflation to rage and stocks to stumble in the first half of 2022, as the Fed … [Read more...] about Dual Bond And Stock Bear Markets Look Likely
Sorry, China. Most Americans Support Higher Prices On Your Imports.
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin An overwhelming number of U.S. registered voters say they support higher tariffs on goods imported from China. According to a poll released this week by Morning Consult, 73% of survey respondents said they support the U.S. government using trade remedies on China to protect U.S. industries and American workers with a similar high number — 71% — supporting the trade war tariffs imposed on $250 billion worth of China imports during the Trump administration. Even with inflation at levels not seen since the 1970s, American voters seem willing to force companies to import from elsewhere or make it locally instead. “I am not surprised by these numbers,” says Harsh Khurana, CEO of WeCultivate, a tech company funded in part by Mark Cuban , that works as a browser extension on Amazon AMZN to show consumers American-made products. “Tariffs hurt the American consumer more than they hurt China's manufacturing because the … [Read more...] about Sorry, China. Most Americans Support Higher Prices On Your Imports.
Markets See Looming Recession – The Fed Sees “Softish” Landing
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Market volatility in spades this week! On Tuesday, markets were all a-twitter (oops, can’t use that word!) over the large and unexpected rise in April’s retail sales (+0.8%). That sparked a +2.0% rally in the S&P 500. What market commentators neglected to mention was that, when adjusted for price increases, the “real” number was negative (see chart above – red line). On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell said that they would continue to tighten financial conditions until “we see inflation coming down,” and that it might not be easy and could come at the expense of a higher unemployment rate. “You’d still have a strong labor market,” he said, “if unemployment were to move up a few ticks. I would say there are a-number-of plausible paths to have a soft, as I said, softish, landing.” Note the reference to higher unemployment and the use of the word “softish” instead of “soft” indicating that the Fed might not be able to tame … [Read more...] about Markets See Looming Recession – The Fed Sees “Softish” Landing
Sell? No Way – This Is A Buyers’ Stock Market
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Don't let opportunity slip away. The last two weeks saw media negativity increase. However, economy reports and stock market actions hint at a rebound ahead. Here are the key items to keep in mind... First, this mid-quarter timing is traditionally an excellent time to act : buy, sell and rebalance. The important quarterly earnings reporting is mostly completed. Fund managers are unconstrained, with a full 1-1/2 months remaining before they need to worry about the holdings in their quarterly reports. Second, May is a great month to be optimistic in the northern hemisphere . Late spring and summer await, when spirits are lifted by weather, outdoor activities, vacations and generally relaxed attitudes. Then follows fall into winter, marked by major holidays ending with the launch of the new year: 2023. Third, remember that Wall Street attempts to forecast ahead by about six months . Therefore, expect third and … [Read more...] about Sell? No Way – This Is A Buyers’ Stock Market
Bursa to trade cautiously this week
PETALING JAYA: Bursa Malaysia is expected to see cautious trading this week due to increasing market volatility, says Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd vice-president of equity research Thong Pak Leng. He reckoned that the FBM KLCI is likely to move sideways with an upside bias of between 1,545 and 1,565, with immediate resistance at 1,570 and support at 1,540. “We are cautiously optimistic about the local market although there’s improvement in the regional market sentiment as profit-taking is likely to set in,” he told Bernama. As uncertainties continue to dictate sentiment, the index is expected to remain in consolidation mode. For the holiday-shortened week just-ended, the local bourse was mixed amid the steady performance of regional markets and a decline on Wall Street on heightened concerns over the impact of persistently high inflation. On a weekly basis, the FBM KLCI rose 4.71 points to end last week at 1,549.12 from 1,544.41 in the previous week. On the index board, the … [Read more...] about Bursa to trade cautiously this week
Why Bill Gates does not buy cryptocurrencies
Microsoft’s billionaire co-founder Bill Gates has expressed doubts about cryptocurrencies on several occasions. During an “ask me anything” session on Reddit earlier this week, he explained why he did not buy them. The billionaire philanthropist said he preferred investing in “things that have valuable output”. “The value of companies is based on how they make great products,” he added. “The value of crypto is just what some other person decides someone else will pay for it so not adding to society like other investments.” Bill Gates had denounced cryptocurrencies in an interview to the Wall Street Journal in February. Close “The way cryptocurrency works today allows for certain criminal activities,” he had added. “It would be good to get rid of that.” Gates had also pointed to the volatility of cryptocurrencies in a CNBC interview. “Bitcoin can go up and down just based on the mania or whatever the views are, and I do not have a way of predicting … [Read more...] about Why Bill Gates does not buy cryptocurrencies
Bollywood sex worker biopic resonates in India’s brothels
Sex worker Nagma watches a song video of Gangubai Kathiawadi on her smartphone in Mumbai, India, May 10, 2022. Image: Thomson Reuters Foundation/Roli Srivastava via Reuters MUMBAI — The brothels look brighter, the alleyways are cleaner, and a stirring soundtrack accompanies the protagonists, but a new Bollywood film set in Mumbai’s red-light district has struck a chord with India’s roughly one million sex workers. “Gangubai Kathiawadi” is a biopic telling the story of a sex worker of the same name who went from being a young trafficking victim to fight for the rights of women working in the trade in the 1950s, a battle still being fought today, Thomson Reuters Foundation reported. Many sex workers in Kamathipura (Mumbai’s red-light district) and across India say the film starring celebrated actress Alia Bhatt shows rare understanding of their everyday struggles. “We saw the film carefully, minutely. There have been so many films on women like us, but none that raised these … [Read more...] about Bollywood sex worker biopic resonates in India’s brothels
Indonesia’s fractured student movement losing power to effect change
JAKARTA, May 22 (Jakarta Post/ANN): Indonesia’s student movement is struggling to retain its role as an agent of change, as previously united fronts fragment and alliances with the governing elite are nurtured, not avoided. Over the past five years, a number of student demonstrations have been staged in protest of state policies deemed detrimental to the welfare of the people and to democracy. However, these protests have either been ignored by policymakers or have been met with state violence. During the 2019 #ReformasiDikorupsi (reform corrupted) protests in opposition to several controversial pieces of legislation, for instance, university students took to the streets in cities across the country alongside workers’ and farmers’ unions. The students opposed the electoral candidacy of former graft busters, as well as plans to revise the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Law and the Mining Law. They also called for ongoing human rights abuse cases to be resolved and for … [Read more...] about Indonesia’s fractured student movement losing power to effect change