Stock market

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin This is it - the timely signal that people say "never" sounds. You know - the announcement that the stock market is at a bottom, so "Buy!" Disclosure: Author is fully invested in actively-managed U.S. equity funds Why the silence at such an important time? Because bottoms occur when there is widespread (AKA, popular) negativity accompanied by dire forecasts of worse to come. Search for "stock market" now and today's torrent of pessimism is obvious. Thus, the environment is one of leapfrogging negatives. Positives? No interest. But there's more to that lack of bullishness... During such periods, professional investors (whose careers are based on performance) are seldom, if ever, heard from. Instead, they are focused on taking advantage of buying opportunities as they compete with other professional investors. Providing random investors with gratuitous insights works against their goals. A good example is from … [Read more...] about Stock Market Bulls – It’s Your Turn

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin It appears that the stock market bears have either disappeared or been transformed into bulls. Occasionally, someone attempts to ignite concern about real risks, but even those efforts peter out. The rising market is evidently "proof" that worries and worrywarts are wrongheaded. Disclosure: Author was fully-invested in stocks but sold everything on Friday, February 14. So, it's official: The stock market's rocky, wall-of-worry climb has morphed into a smooth, growth cruise. This attitudinal shift is full-fledged: From September’s recession-bearishness to today’s growth-bullishness. While such a move is typical of negative to positive market moves, this one has produced an (over?) confident view of what lies ahead. Such conviction makes investors and the stock market vulnerable to disappointment. Therefore, now looks to be a good time to be a contrarian and focus on the risks. So, what is there to worry … [Read more...] about Where Have All The Stock Market Bears Gone?

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Risk off is here. Even if the market looks positive. Don’t get ahead of your skis on this one. Markets can go downhill fast. Beyond the Federal Reserve, there are 15 other central banks joining in on the rate hiking mania. This is issue No. 1 for the stock market right now. “It’s as if the only answer to inflation is to reduce consumption. The other answer is to increase production. Which means you make more stuff,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of macro investment shop Bretton Woods Research in Long Valley, NJ. “More stuff means lower prices.” The new trend of macro volatility is playing out. Business activity is slumping and inflation in the U.S. is still over 8%. It’s closer to 9% in Europe, which is worse than big emerging markets Brazil, India, South Africa and China. Within the BRICS, only Russian inflation is worse than Europe and the U.S. That means the Fed, European Central Bank, the Bank of England … [Read more...] about Stock Markets Face Deteriorating Outlook, And Returns, Worldwide

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin A weakening stock market is not going to be saved by a strong dollar this time. Yes, Europe and Japan and the U.K. have low yield and a much more dire economic outlook for the time being, but it is unlikely that asset managers there will be throwing money into the U.S. stock market for much longer. There is no near-term bottom yet. “What’s the pain point for the Fed here? We are at 3659 in the S&P 500 and we think it could go to 2800, though I don’t want to be too dour,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, a macro investment-themed research firm. “Another 20% fall is certainly in the realm,” he says. With currencies weaker in the other core economies, it becomes more costly for these foreign asset managers to buy dollars. Still, where else are they going to get 4% on a one-year T-bill? Parking money in Treasurys will still be seen by them as a safe investment . But that won’t really help … [Read more...] about Weakening Stock Market Worsened By Strong Dollar

Stock Market News, Nifty, Sensex The Indian stock market opened deep in the red on Wednesday with the Sensex down 757.37 points, or 1.25 percent, at 59813.71 at 9:17am, and the Nifty shedding 220.80 points, or 1.22 percent, to 17849.20, following negative global cues. About 475 shares have advanced, 1,667 shares declined, and 78 shares are unchanged. All sectors are trading in the red with the IT, financials, auto and realty indices down 1-3 percent each. The BSE midcap and smallcap indices are down over a percent each. "The US markets ended sharply lower on Tuesday after the latest inflation data in the world's largest economy showed a less-than-expected moderation in the price-rise index that's at a multi-decade high. Asian markets are trading in the red on Wednesday as a white-hot US inflation report dashed hopes for a peak in inflation and fuelled interest rate hike bets," said Mohit Nigam, Head of PMS at Hem Securities. "On the technical front, the key resistance … [Read more...] about Stock market crashes as inflation spooks investors. Factors dragging equities lower

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Frustrated, puzzled and concerned about this sinking stock market? Hang on. It is in an important two-week period that should provide better understanding about where stocks are headed. The two key dates are Friday, September 30, and Friday, October 7. The closing stock price levels of the market indexes should reveal the U.S. stock market's health and direction. Why just those Fridays? Because the intra-week, daily trading provides more volatility noise than helpful information. However, that daily activity tends to cease by Friday's close because the weekend means two days of potential news with no market activity. In other words, risk without a chance of doing something about it. Why these two Fridays? Because last Friday (September 23) saw all the major U.S. stock market indexes simultaneously close at an important, "technical" (meaning chart) level: A potential "double bottom." Each index's Friday close … [Read more...] about Two Key Dates Will Reveal U.S. Stock Market’s Fate

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin What’s up with the neck-breaking roller coaster in stocks? Last Tuesday, stocks broke a month-long bearish streak and launched into a rebound. Over a week, the S&P 500 soared 5.1%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 6.3%, and the Dow was up 3.9%. But then, this Tuesday, the stock market carriage tilted at a 90-degree angle and hurtled downhill again—wiping out $1.5 trillion in a single day. Zooming out What’s sending stocks through these steep slopes? Short answer: Inflation, or expectations around it. One indication is that the relief rally perfectly coincided with the lead up to August’s CPI release, which came out this past Tuesday. And before it, economists were dead convinced inflation would slow, if for no other reason than falling gas prices. But it wasn’t just the August CPI. Over the past few weeks, there were a few seismic macro developments giving hope that the worst inflationary fears for the … [Read more...] about ‘Devastating Recession’— $1.5 Trillion Wipeout In Stock Market Can Be Just The Beginning As S&P 500, Nasdaq, And Dow Nosedive

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin He may be new at the job, but FedEx FDX CEO Raj Subramaniam should know better. With 2nd quarter 2022 sales up 5.5% over the same quarter in 2021, the declines in total earnings (-15%) and earnings per share (-18.6%) mean there is a serious company issue - not the global recession excuse he offered Jim Cramer on CNBC . Here are the CEO's comments contained in the company's press release : “Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations,” said Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Corporation president and chief executive officer. “While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable … [Read more...] about No – FedEx’s Problems Do Not Signal A Recession (Or A Bear Stock Market)

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Fed officials on Thursday reiterated calls for aggressive policy to combat stubbornly high inflation—fueling expectations for bigger rate hikes amid a stock-market selloff that’s seen major indexes hit new lows for the year—and some analysts project that the losses could only deepen. Key Facts Real interest rates, which remained negative since July 2020, “have to be in positive territory and held there for a time,” Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester told CNBC Thursday morning, lamenting that inflation remains too high and warning the Fed still has room to raise rates more: “We’re still not even in restricted territory on the funds rate.” In a speech on Thursday, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard issued a similarly hawkish call, saying it “does look like” the Fed is expecting a “fair amount of additional moves this year” to put “meaningful” downward pressure on inflation. Expectations for … [Read more...] about Stock Market Gloom ‘Worse Than Ever’ As Fed Signals It May Keep Tightening Until Recession

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Key Takeaways Bear markets are defined by a 20% drop in stock prices. The average length of a bear market is typically nine months. Investors can use dollar cost averaging during bear markets to boost their overall returns. Is it bear season? The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride lately, and many investors have differing opinions on where the market is going next. Some are predicting the next crash. Others expect inflation to cool and the stock market to rise. You're not alone if you're feeling nervous about investing in today's market, because of a potential bear market or simply the current level of volatility. But is now really the time to sell off your position? Or is this just a normal part of the investment cycle? Let's explore what's going on in the market and help you decide whether now is the right time to invest. What Defines a Bear Market? The first thing we need to do is … [Read more...] about Is It Bear Season? Inflation, Interest Rates, And The Stock Market