That said, global growth fears are very strong, with a majority of investors expecting global growth to slow in the next 12 months, although most think a recession is unlikely. Investors are saying that a ‘secular stagnation’ environment is most likely in the next two-or-three quarters. With lower global growth, inflation expectations too have declined, allowing investors to discount a dovish Fed. That is why they now think the dollar is very overvalued, the most since June 2002, while they also think emerging market currencies are the cheapest since October 2004. … [Read more...] about Quick Take | Fund manager survey finds emerging markets favourites against backdrop of slowing growth
Slow growth model
And, of course, as we get more and more certain about the data, the growth rates will change. To take one example, while the advance estimate of GDP growth for 2015-16 was 7.6 percent, the final growth rate came in at 8.2 percent.Subscribe to Moneycontrol Pro's Annual plan for Rs 399/- for the first year. Use coupon PRO2020 (Available on Web & Android only). … [Read more...] about Opinion | Take the first advance GDP growth estimates with a pinch of salt
Thankfully, the World Bank doesn’t think things will get so bad. Its baseline scenario is US GDP growth will slow by 0.4 percentage points in 2019 and another 0.8 percentage points in 2020. For China, its estimate is a slowdown in growth by 0.3 percentage points this year and no further slowdown in 2020.Subscribe to Moneycontrol Pro's Annual plan for Rs 399/- for the first year. Use coupon PRO2020 (Available on Web & Android only). … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | When elephants fight, how badly does the grass get trampled?
The markets are betting that this means more stimulus from China and some furious backpedalling from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. And why not---the years after the financial crisis have proved again and again the central banks rush in to the rescue at the first hint of trouble. … [Read more...] about Opinion | Can Trump heroically bring the world economy back from the brink?
The Nikkei India Composite PMI Output index, a yardstick of private sector economic activity both in the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 53.6 in December 2018 from a 25-month high of 54.5 in November. Since any reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month, the composite index shows economic activity remained strong in December, although the momentum slowed. While the New Year has started with worries about slowing global growth, the PMI survey says the Indian economy has so far remained relatively immune. … [Read more...] about 100-word take | PMI shows Goldilocks moment for Indian economy