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Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin For anyone who writes on the state of the world, the approach of Christmas brings with it the near obligation to sketch out the events and happenings of the year ahead. Last year, I took a traditional though cynical approach when I wrote Drinking with Dickens , the aim of which was to imagine what a vision of the year ahead would look like, whilst under the influence of some of Charles Dickens favourite drinks (i.e. ‘Smoking Bishop’). In the end, some of my comments (‘higher inflation’, ‘tension in Asia’ and ‘Boris resigns’) came close to the mark. The Folly of Forecasting This year, I have a less weary approach, partly because there are so many new, emerging trends, partly because the world is opening up travel wise and partly because there is so much at stake. The real world remains stranger than fiction, though to join the two I have added some book recommendations. JK Galbraith wrote that the only role of … [Read more...] about 2022 – What’s Next?

Today we remember the gallant Americans who fought on D-Day and on all the other battlefronts of World War Two.  And yet we should also remember that Americans fought for peace . As President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared in his D-Day radio address , “They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest,” he added, to bring a “sure peace … invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men.” Also today, we are in a new struggle against the schemings of unworthy men: Vladimir Putin and his army of “Orcs.” And while we are not ourselves fighting, we are helping. The vast majority of Americans agree that’s the right thing to do — polls show support above 70 % . Yet if helping Ukraine win its war for survival against Russia is a good idea, then helping to win the peace afterward is also a good idea. Fortunately, we have a successful precedent to point to: The Marshall Plan , launched 75 years ago  on June 5, 1947,  is also an anniversary worth celebrating. … [Read more...] about PINKERTON: Blessed Are The Peacemakers — And The Rebuilders

The Associated Press MADRID (AP) — The Latest on the NATO summit in Madrid: ___ Italian Premier Mario Draghi says plans for an increased U.S. military presence in Europe don’t amount to a military escalation within NATO. Draghi says the increase announced Wednesday by the White House would amount to just 70 additional U.S. troops on Italian soil and an air defense system that had already been planned. But he added at the NATO summit in Madrid: “You have to be ready.” Draghi said overall Italy is committing 10,000 troops to NATO. That includes 2,000 divided among the Italian command of NATO in Bulgaria, its presence in Romania and staffing of air patrols over the Baltics. Another 8,000 are on standby in Italy “if eventually necessary.” ___ — Turkey lifts objections to Sweden, Finland joining NATO ahead of alliance summit — Biden, NATO to beef up force posture amid Russian aggression — Macron says Russia can’t win in Ukraine — The AP Interview: Spanish PM … [Read more...] about Live updates | Italy sees no NATO military escalation

Daria Mattingly is a Ukrainian historian specializing in the Holodomor. She holds a PhD from Cambridge University, where she teaches Soviet and Russian history, and is on the selection committee of the Danyliw Research Seminar on Contemporary Ukraine, University of Ottawa. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinio n on CNN. (CNN) Growing up in Ukraine, one learns not to leave breadcrumbs on the table. My generation of Millennials was taught this pious reverence to bread by our grandparents who survived the 1932-1933 famine in Ukraine -- known as the Holodomor. Daria Mattingly Many a time I heard the story of how a soup with wild sorrel saved my grandmother and her siblings while the grain collected from her village was left to rot at the train station. That wheat could have saved so many lives, but "the state" did not allow it. My grandmother could not stand the sight of sorrel for the rest of her life, and always kept her … [Read more...] about Opinion: All Ukrainian children know to ‘never leave breadcrumbs on the table’

Jerome Powell (Bloomberg filepix) - A + A (June 29): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy is in “strong shape” and the central bank can reduce inflation to 2% while maintaining a solid labor market, even though that task has become more challenging in recent months. He also vowed to ensure rapid price increases don’t become entrenched, saying that “we will not allow a transition from a low inflation environment to a high inflation environment.” “We hope that growth will remain positive,” Powell said Wednesday during a panel discussion at the European Central Bank’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal. Household and business finances are also in solid shape, and “overall the US economy is well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy.” Raising interest rates without sparking a recession “is our aim and we believe there are pathways to achieve that,” Powell said, reiterating comments he’s made this month. The Fed on June 15 raised … [Read more...] about Powell says Fed can avert recession but task getting tougher

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Six months ago, I tried my hand at imagining how 2022 might transpire in markets, economies and politics. Whilst I am usually highly sceptical about forecasting (‘its role is to make astrology respectable’), my prognostics were sufficiently telling that I will now claim a certain wisdom. The secret is to make ambiguous statements about a wide range of events, and some of them will stick. In this respect I prefigured Boris Johnson’s difficulties, the war in Ukraine (Bosnia was also a potential hotspot), Macron’s win and China closing down. Looking ahead, it is stating the obvious that the shape of the next six months will be determined by the damage caused by the war in Ukraine and the policy response to high inflation though what is more interesting and challenging is to frame their secondary effects. Market Stress Perhaps the easiest factor to parse is the change in monetary policy from the Fed and … [Read more...] about What Will It Take To Get Inflation Down? Is Oil The Key?

- A + A HONG KONG/LONDON/BENGALURU (June 29): The latest easing of coronavirus travel rules combined with other encouraging policy signals have began luring some foreign investors back to Chinese stocks, raising the chances that the market can sustain its bounce after months of heavy selling. As the S&P 500 is about to close its worst first half of any year since 1970 and bonds have taken a thrashing, China's beaten-down equity markets start looking like a shelter from a global storm of runaway inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession fears. China's blue-chip CSI300 index is up about 20% from April lows, as is the Shanghai Composite after losses of more than 10% in the first quarter. The gains, together with the relaxation of lockdowns and signals that Beijing could ease up both on virus policies and regulatory clampdowns, have tempted money managers, who were quitting China en-masse in March, to return. Those who were on the sidelines, "have shown some … [Read more...] about Easing Covid-19 rules, growth focus aid China bulls’ cautious return

- A + A LONDON (June 29): OPEC and OPEC+ began two days of meetings on Wednesday with sources saying a big policy change was unlikely this month. At its last gathering in early June, OPEC+ decided to raise output each month by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, compared with a previous plan to add 432,000 bpd over three months. OPEC+ consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. Washington welcomed the producers' decision in June that followed months of pressure from the West on OPEC+ to raise production to help lower oil prices. International prices hit their highest since the record levels of 2008, after the West imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine begun on Feb 24, which Moscow calls "a special military operation". They have eased since this year's March peaks, but rose for a fourth day on Wednesday to approach US$120 a barrel because of tight supply and concern OPEC has little … [Read more...] about OPEC+ meets with little prospect of pumping more oil

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday found Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) has a 10-point lead over Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Herschel Walker in the state’s Senate race later this year, as Walker grapples with repeated scandals. Key Facts Warnock led Walker 54% to 44% in the Quinnipiac poll, which surveyed almost 1,500 Georgia voters from Thursday to Monday, a significant shift since a January poll by Quinnipiac showed Warnock narrowly trailing Walker—who had not yet won the GOP nomination at that point—49% to 48%. Republicans overwhelmingly back Walker (93% to 7%) while Democrats overwhelmingly back Warnock (97% to 2%), but independents favor Warnock by a 62% to 33% margin, according to Wednesday’s poll. Walker leads among white voters (62%) and men (52%), while Warnock leads among Black voters (88%) and women (61%). Warnock’s 10-point lead differs from a June 9 East … [Read more...] about Trump-Endorsed Herschel Walker Falls Behind Warnock In Georgia Senate Poll

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Snack bar maker Kind is calling out the sugar content in rival bars as it launches an augmented reality pop-up in Manhattan for 48 hours. The pop-up installation allows consumers to use mobile devices to see the sugar content of everyday snacks. But this welcome reminder to watch our sugar intake is also the escalation of a war that has spilled from beer to bars. Kind CEO Daniel Lubetzky poses for a photo at his office, in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan) ASSOCIATED PRESS Consumers are already familiar with the pitched battle between Bud Light and Miller Light over ingredients . At issue is what’s more important – avoiding corn syrup, or consuming fewer carbs? On the surface, the facts seem to favor Miller from a purely nutritional standpoint, because corn syrup is not in the finished beer in question (Miller Lite) and, yes, carbs do matter. But Bud Light continues to fight back with a taste and … [Read more...] about Kind Escalates The Bar Wars