By Bloomberg | | PUBLISHED: January 11, 2019 at 8:27 am | UPDATED: January 11, 2019 at 8:27 am By Katia Dmitrieva, Chibuike Oguh and Catarina Saraiva, Bloomberg Economists put the risk of a U.S. recession at the highest in more than six years amid mounting dangers from financial markets, a trade war with China and the federal-government shutdown. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg over the past week see a median 25 percent chance of a slump in the next 12 months, up from 20 percent in the December survey. The Federal Reserve is now projected to keep interest rates steady in the first quarter, instead of raising them, before two increases total this year — down from four moves in 2018. The median projection for 2019 economic growth edged down to 2.5 percent following 2.9 percent in 2018 as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Growth is still expected to be buoyed by a strong jobs market, rising wages and some lingering effects of tax cuts. If the expansion that began in 2009 lasts … [Read more...] about US recession risk hits 6-year high amid trade war, shutdown
By WSJ Fri., Jan. 11, 2019 This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Economists are raising the odds of a U.S. recession, the partial government shutdown enters its 21st day, the Fed is going to use a little patience and high-level trade talks with China are set for the end of the month. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Let us know what you think by replying to this email. RISKY BUSINESS Economists see a growing risk of recession in the U.S. The big worries: trade tensions with China, rising interest rates and market volatility. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal said there was a 25% chance of a recession in the next year, the highest level since October 2011. More than half, 56.6%, said they expected a recession to start in 2020, a presidential election year, while another 26.4% expect a recession in 2021, … [Read more...] about Real Time Economics: Recession Odds Are Rising
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German economy is not heading towards recession, but the government is discussing fiscal measures to support growth, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier was quoted as saying on Thursday. "Germany is not currently at the beginning of a recession, even if there are unresolved problems in international trade with Brexit and the United States," Altmaier told Handelsblatt newspaper in an interview. The German economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the third quarter. Industrial output figures for October and November have pointed to meagre growth in the fourth quarter. The Federal Statics Office will publish preliminary gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter and 2018 as a whole next Tuesday. Economists speak of a technical recession when there are two consecutive quarters of contraction. "For nine years now, we had moderate and healthy growth rates without overheating and the economy will continue to grow this year," Altmaier said. The government will present … [Read more...] about Germany is not heading towards recession
NPR subscribe to Planet Money podcast NPR One Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Pocket Casts Spotify RSS link The Indicator The Indicator from Planet Money Are We Ready For A Recession? Are We Ready For A Recession? Listen · 9:59 9:59 Toggle more options Download Embed Embed <iframe src="https://www.npr.org/player/embed/683695793/683712870" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="NPR embedded audio player"> The Indicator NPR hide caption toggle caption NPR subscribe to The Indicator from Planet Money podcast NPR One Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Pocket Casts Spotify Amazon Alexa RSS link Facebook Twitter Flipboard Email Enlarge this image NPR NPR The Indicator from Planet Money Are We Ready For A Recession? Are We Ready For A Recession? Listen · 9:59 9:59 Toggle more options Download Embed Embed … [Read more...] about Are We Ready For A Recession?
German industry went into a sudden and unexpected collapse in November. The data is so bad some economists think it might be wrong. Nonetheless, they agree that Germany may have been in a recession for the last two quarters of 2018. Germany is the largest economy in Europe and the fourth-largest on the planet. So this is bad. Germany may be in recession, economists said, after they trawled through an unexpectedly horrible set of industrial and manufacturing data published on Wednesday’s from the world’s fourth-largest economy. German industrial production fell by -1.9% in November. Year over year, production hit a low of -4.6% – the biggest trough since the 2008 crisis. Germany’s exports fell -0.4% month over month in November, the government reported today. Suddenly, Europe is faltering. Germany is the largest European economy and its leaders have an outsized influence on the rest of the EU and the European Central Bank. A recession in Germany … [Read more...] about ‘Bad and unexpected’: Germany probably just went into a recession