- A + A FRANKFURT (June 27): European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis. As president Christine Lagarde and colleagues meet in the resort of Sintra for their version of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Jackson Hole conference, they face competing tasks: cool the fastest consumer-price growth in the euro's history without delivering an economic downturn or sparking a 2012-style spike in borrowing costs in Italy, the region's third-largest economy, and other vulnerable states. Markets are already sounding an alert on what may lie ahead. Italian government bond yields jumped past 4% this month for the first time since 2014 as investors took fright at the ECB's plan to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade. With that hike locked in, and another … [Read more...] about ECB’s pivot towards rate hikes feeds fears of new bond crisis
Rate hike bank of canada
States’ borrowing cost set to rise on higher debt supply, RBI’s rate cues, experts say
Borrowing costs of Indian states are likely to rise in the coming weeks as the Reserve Bank of India ’s (RBI) rate hike cycle becomes more entrenched and the supply of state papers rises, money market experts and bankers told Moneycontrol on June 27. A majority of those expect the yield on the 10-year state development loan (SDL) to rise above 8 percent in the coming weeks. “In the first quarter of this fiscal year, supply of debt was limited. But in the second half of this fiscal year, we expect state debt supply to rise and that should put upward pressure on (state) bond yields,” said Ritesh Bhusari, deputy general manager, treasury, at South Indian Bank. To put in perspective, the cut-off yield for 10-year SDL ranged from 7.83 percent to 7.86 percent at an auction on June 21, according to data from the RBI. Prior to that, at an auction on June 14, Tamil Nadu’s 10-year paper was sold at a cut-off yield of 7.94 percent, while Haryana’s 10-year bond was sold at 7.95 percent. … [Read more...] about States’ borrowing cost set to rise on higher debt supply, RBI’s rate cues, experts say
Political Ads Targeting Inflation Ahead Of Midterm Elections Could Force The Fed To Keep Hiking Rates: Goldman Sachs
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The Federal Reserve’s “heightened sensitivity” to rising inflation expectations could be triggered by a barrage of political ad campaigns that are expected to highlight surging consumer prices ahead of the midterm elections in November, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned on Friday, adding that the central bank may feel “compelled” to keep hiking rates aggressively. Key Facts With the midterm elections looming in November, surging consumer prices will be a major issue for voters—especially as long-term inflation expectations have surged in recent months, according to the latest consumer sentiment survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve watches long-term inflation expectations closely, and used it in its decision earlier this month to raise interest rates by 75 basis points—the largest increase since 1994. The central bank’s “strong reaction” to the … [Read more...] about Political Ads Targeting Inflation Ahead Of Midterm Elections Could Force The Fed To Keep Hiking Rates: Goldman Sachs
The State Of The Nation: What the Fed’s 75bps hike and near 4% terminal rate mean for the OPR
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A IF Bank Negara Malaysia’s eight-member monetary policy committee (MPC) raises the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) at its next scheduled meeting on July 6, it will mark its first back-to-back increase since mid-2010, when interest rates were normalised following the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. It will not be the first central bank to do so. Compared with just a month ago, more economists now (at the time of writing) reckon that a 25bps hike will happen in July, but many still think a pause is possible in July ahead of the Hari Raya Aidiladha celebrations. In any case, at least one more rate increase (if not two) is expected to take place by the conclusion of the Sept 8 meeting to bring the OPR to at least 2.25% (if not 2.5%), consensus data show. “Our house has also shifted expectations for Bank Negara to frontload … [Read more...] about The State Of The Nation: What the Fed’s 75bps hike and near 4% terminal rate mean for the OPR
Banking Central| Where will the repo rate settle ultimately?
Reserve Bank of India The central bank is fighting twin battles at this point. It needs to control inflation that is way above its mid-term target of 4 percent and has been consistently above the upper band of 6 percent. On the other hand, the nascent recovery seen on the economic growth, needs to be supported. The central bank-led monetary policy committee (MPC) clearly misjudged the inflation trajectory for a prolonged period in its bid to support growth recovery. The stance remained accommodative for a long time which led to differences even within the panel. In May, the rate-setting panel then embarked on a catch-up game by initiating sharp rate hikes in two rounds, totaling 90 basis points (bps). One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The MPC has signalled to take the rate back to pre-pandemic levels. The repo rate, which is currently at 4.9 percent, can go up by at least 100 basis points, according to economists considering the inflation … [Read more...] about Banking Central| Where will the repo rate settle ultimately?
Thai central bank says policy tightening will not disrupt economy recovery
- A + A BANGKOK (June 27): A tightening of Thai monetary policy will be conducted so it does not disrupt the recovery of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, central bank officials said on Monday, reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. Thailand's economy will continue growing this year and next, driven by domestic demand and tourism, and could beat forecasts despite a risk that inflation will be higher than expected, Bank of Thailand (BOT) officials told an analysts' meeting. The BOT will try to prevent the economy from overheating, which would cause demand-driven inflation, by gradually shifting from the current very accommodative policy, assistant governor Piti Disyatat told the meeting. The BOT's task was to help the economy take off smoothly, he said. "It's a challenge for monetary policy to release the accelerator pedal appropriately and timely so that the recovery has good momentum," Piti said, referring to the current … [Read more...] about Thai central bank says policy tightening will not disrupt economy recovery
Escape From The U.S.: How To Move To Canada
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin How to move to Canada from the U.S.—it’s a question many people started asking as soon as the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last week, with Google searches for the topic “how to move to Canada” spiking . The phrase “How to become a Canadian citizen” also spiked 550% in the hour after the decision came out. This isn’t the first time this has happened. During the 2016 election, so many American were looking into how to move out of the U.S. that the Canadian Citizenship and Immigration website crashed . Canada’s appeals are obvious: the nature, the livable cities , the publicly funded health care, the diversity, the lower crime rates. Also helping drive the recent interest: Abortion is legal in Canada. But there are downsides, too. Canada’s cost of living is higher than the U.S. The taxes not for the weak-willed: The more money you make, the more income tax you will pay. And it’s colder than much of the U.S. … [Read more...] about Escape From The U.S.: How To Move To Canada
RBI will continue reforms till fintechs do not self-regulate: Online PSB Loans MD
During FY23, Online PSB Loans will target hitting Rs 1 lakh crore in disbursements, though the internal target is to reach Rs 1.25 lakh crore in disbursements, the MD said. (Representative image) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue bringing new regulations for fintech players till they self-regulate and improve their lending practices, said Jinand Shah, Managing Director (MD) of fintech Online PSB Loans in 59 Minutes. Fintechs provide infrastructure services to banks and non-banks and charge a fee for the same. “If you see... recently there was a step by the RBI and there are certain ambiguities around it on how credit lines are being offered by various fintechs. So far as OPL (Online PSB Loans) is concerned, we never had any issue of such sorts as we are a pure play infrastructure provider,” Shah told Moneycontrol on June 27. Shah was referring to the RBI’s latest diktat barring several fintechs from facilitating loans through Prepaid Payment Instruments … [Read more...] about RBI will continue reforms till fintechs do not self-regulate: Online PSB Loans MD
Spritzer admits costlier crude oil, stronger US dollar will erode its profit margin
- A + A KUALA LUMPUR (June 27): Costlier crude oil along with a stronger US dollar will erode Spritzer's Bhd profit margin, the bottled water producer admitted. "Costlier oil will translate into costlier PET resin, which is the main raw material used in making the [plastic] bottles. "PET resin is normally quoted in US dollar so a stronger US dollar would mean we will have to pay more for our PET resin," a company representative said in a brief email reply to theedgemarkets.com recently, when asked about the impact of surging oil prices on its manufacturing costs. According to the US-based PET Resin Association, PET — which is short for polyethylene terephthalate, the chemical name for polyester — is a clear, strong, and lightweight plastic made from crude oil and ethane extracted from natural gas that is widely used for packaging food and beverages, especially convenience-sized soft drinks, juices and water. Following Russia's incursion into Ukraine, oil prices … [Read more...] about Spritzer admits costlier crude oil, stronger US dollar will erode its profit margin
GST at 5: Accountants still confront major issues in filing returns
Representative image In July 2017, India ushered in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) for levy and collection of taxes on inter-state supply of goods and services. Almost five years on, accountants complain of multiple glitches in the system hailed as the single biggest tax reform in post-independence India when it was introduced. For instance, the GST Act has failed to provide a system to address Centre-state and inter-state disputes, they said. Article 279A (11) of the Constitution enables the GST Council to institute a mechanism to resolve inter-state disputes, but no such system has been seriously contemplated so far. Also Read: GST at 5: A structural, economic analysis and prescriptions Close Today, the law only says that if GST has been wrongly paid to the Centre, there will be no interest liability and if tax has been wrongly paid to a state, it will be refunded. Moreover, there is a constant doubt still over the applicable rate of GST that makes … [Read more...] about GST at 5: Accountants still confront major issues in filing returns