Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The Bank of England on Thursday predicted that the U.K. will fall into a recession in the final quarter of this year as it announced its steepest rate hike in nearly three decades, following similar moves by the central banks of the Eurozone and the U.S. as all of them attempt to clampdown on runaway inflation. Key Facts The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points—its sharpest hike in 27 years—to 1.75%. The central bank also warned that inflation in the U.K. could rise to 13% by the end of the year—up from 9.4% in June, worsening the country's already severe cost of living crisis. The steep inflation means the real household income of Britons will “fall sharply” for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the central bank noted. The Bank of England blamed inflation on the “near doubling” of natural gas prices since May due to Russia’s throttling of supplies to Europe and the … [Read more...] about U.K. Central Bank Forecasts Recession This Year—Joining U.S. And Eurozone With Historic Rate Hike
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Stocks Under Pressure Despite Strong Jobs Report As Investors Fear Bigger Fed Rate Hikes
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The stock market was mixed Friday after the U.S. economy added back a better-than-expected 528,000 jobs in July, with investors now anticipating that a strong labor market will keep the Federal Reserve on its path of aggressive interest rate hikes to bring down inflation. Key Facts The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, nearly 100 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5%. The S&P 500 fell despite a strong non-farm payrolls report : The labor market added back 528,000 jobs in July—easily surpassing the 258,000 expected by analysts, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Unemployment ticked down to 3.5%, while wage growth continued to rise, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and over 5 points higher than a year ago, signaling that inflation pressures continue to remain. With the labor market still running … [Read more...] about Stocks Under Pressure Despite Strong Jobs Report As Investors Fear Bigger Fed Rate Hikes
Gold bound for weekly gain on softer dollar as sharp rate-hike bets cool
Representative image Gold hit a more than three-week high on Friday and was bound for a weekly rise, supported by a softer dollar and bets that the Federal Reserve may cool the pace of rate hikes as economic risks deepen. Spot gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,761.05 per ounce by 1040 GMT, and has gained about 2 percent this week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4 percent to $1,776.20. "Gold is drawing strength from a softer dollar and cooling Fed hike bets,” said FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga, adding soft economic data could keep bolstering gold. The U.S. economy contracted in the second quarter, driving an over 1 percent gain in safe-haven gold on Thursday. Close Should Friday’s U.S. PCE data suggest signs of inflation peaking, this could be a welcome development for gold, while "a red hot report is likely to feed the inflation beast – dragging gold lower in the process as market players boost rate hike bets,” Otunuga added. Gold remains inversely correlated to the … [Read more...] about Gold bound for weekly gain on softer dollar as sharp rate-hike bets cool
China stocks see best day in three months as US rate-hike bets ease
- A + A SHANGHAI (Aug 11): China's blue-chip stock index closed higher on Thursday (Aug 11), posting its biggest jump in more than three months, as softer-than-expected US inflation data prompted bets of less aggressive rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Big tech companies listed in Hong Kong snapped a three-day losing streak, helping the city's main stock benchmark rise the most in nearly one month. The blue-chip CSI 300 Index ended 2% higher, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.6%. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.4%, while the China Enterprises Index gained 2.7%. Foreign investors bought more than 13.2 billion yuan (US$1.96 billion or RM8.71 billion) of Chinese stocks via the Stock Connect scheme, the highest in nearly two months. Slowing US inflation may have opened the door for the Fed to temper the pace of interest rate hikes, easing the pressure of capital outflows from emerging markets, including China. Securities firms jumped more than … [Read more...] about China stocks see best day in three months as US rate-hike bets ease
Bank of England on brink of biggest rate hike since 1995
- A + A LONDON (Aug 4): The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by the most since 1995 on Thursday, even as the risks of a recession mount, in an attempt to stop a surge in inflation from becoming embedded in Britain's economy. Most investors and economists predict the BoE will increase its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 1.75%, its highest level since late 2008 at the start of the global financial crisis, when it announces its decision at 1100 GMT. Britain's main inflation rate has soared to 9.4% - and could hit 15% in early 2023 according to the Resolution Foundation think-tank - as the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine combine with post-pandemic strains on the world economy. The BoE, which has already raised borrowing costs five times since December, said in June it would act forcefully if inflation pressures became more persistent. Since then, inflation expectations among the public have eased off a bit and the pricing … [Read more...] about Bank of England on brink of biggest rate hike since 1995
Banking Central | Another rate hike coming this week
Shaktikanta Das (FIle image) Predicting the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, which begins on August 3, is a no-brainer this time. Governor Shaktikanta Das has already talked about rate hikes to combat inflation. This time, the bet is a 25-35 basis points (bps) hike. One bps is one-hundredth of a percentage point. It makes sense, considering that the rate-setting panel’s biggest foe now is high inflation. Some easing in the recent prints doesn’t take away the fact that inflation remains far above the MPC’s comfort zone. A 35 bps hike will take the repo rate, the rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to banks, back to 5.25 percent to pre-pandemic levels and that is where the rates are likely to settle in the current cycle unless inflation further surprises on the upside. The MPC has already hiked the rates by 90 basis points in the current rate cycle, in line with the plan to gradually withdraw from the … [Read more...] about Banking Central | Another rate hike coming this week
Indian rupee jumps after RBI’s rate hike, Thai baht firms 1%
- A + A BENGALURU (Aug 5): The Indian rupee firmed on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its third rate hike in as many months, while the Thai baht strengthened more than 1% on potential start of policy tightening next week. The RBI raised its repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) as June retail inflation hit 7%. Economists expect more hikes ahead as inflation is seen holding at the central bank's top end of the 2%-6% tolerance band for the rest of the year. Given the risks that sustained high inflation could destabilise inflation expectations and that inflation will remain above target band for a few more months, the RBI will continue to hike rates over the next few months, Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities said. "Like other Asian currencies, the rupee has benefited from a recent drop in the US dollar. Having pulled back from a breach of 80, we continue to expect some consolidation in the near term." The Indian … [Read more...] about Indian rupee jumps after RBI’s rate hike, Thai baht firms 1%
Norway inflation at 34-year high boosts rate-hike pressure
- A + A (Aug 10): Norway’s inflation exceeded forecasts for a fourth straight month, hitting a new 34-year high and adding pressure on Norges Bank to deliver a bigger interest rate hike this month than it has flagged earlier. Consumer prices rose 6.8% in July from a year earlier, the fastest pace since July 1988, according to data from Statistics Norway on Wednesday. Underlying inflation, the measure followed by the central bank, rose to an annual 4.5% — the highest on record. The median estimate in the analyst poll for core price growth was 3.8%, while Norges Bank had projected a pace of 3.2%. The data triggered revisions by several banks in their forecasts on Norway’s rate path, with Norges Bank now seen delivering another half-point interest rate hike from 1.25% at its interim meeting next week and possibly also at its September meeting. While Norwegian policy makers have been among the most aggressive in raising rates among the holders of major currencies, … [Read more...] about Norway inflation at 34-year high boosts rate-hike pressure
Asian currencies tepid; Thai baht gains ahead of likely rate hike
- A + A BENGALURU (Aug 9): Asian currencies were subdued on Tuesday, as the US dollar remained flat ahead of July inflation data, while the baht scaled to a five-week high with investor focus on a central bank meeting that is expected to kick-start Thailand's tightening cycle. The Philippine peso eased 0.3% on slower-than-expected economic growth rate of 7.4% in the second quarter, giving the central bank more reason to further tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. With inflation near a four-year high, the market is widely expecting a bigger hike on Aug 18 by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Analysts at Goldman Sachs, ING and Barclays expect a 50 basis point (bps) hike by BSP. Analysts at Dutch bank ING expect the BSP to maintain its hawkish bias for the rest of the year despite a disappointing growth report even as triple threats of inflation, rising borrowing costs and high debt-to-GDP ratio prove to be headwinds for the economy. "We believe, … [Read more...] about Asian currencies tepid; Thai baht gains ahead of likely rate hike
Dollar climbs as Fed officials suggest more rate hikes to come
- A + A HONG KONG (Aug 4): The dollar was on the front foot on Thursday, helped by several U.S. Federal Reserve officials pushing back against suggestions they will slow the pace of interest rate hikes, while the pound was flat ahead of a Bank of England meeting. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was steady in early trade at 106.39 having eked out small gains overnight. It is up around 0.5% this week, reversing the trend of the previous two weeks. "The dollar weakened last week after the (policy setting) Federal Open Market Committee meeting because the market wanted to believe that the Fed was pivoting in a dovish manner because of slowing growth," said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. "This week, there are a lot more FOMC speakers pushing back against this idea, all singing the same tune: ‘we are not done, and you should expect more rate hikes’," he added . San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and … [Read more...] about Dollar climbs as Fed officials suggest more rate hikes to come