Policy rate

Borrowing costs of Indian states are likely to rise in the coming weeks as the Reserve Bank of India ’s (RBI) rate hike cycle becomes more entrenched and the supply of state papers rises, money market experts and bankers told Moneycontrol on June 27. A majority of those expect the yield on the 10-year state development loan (SDL) to rise above 8 percent in the coming weeks. “In the first quarter of this fiscal year, supply of debt was limited. But in the second half of this fiscal year, we expect state debt supply to rise and that should put upward pressure on (state) bond yields,” said Ritesh Bhusari, deputy general manager, treasury, at South Indian Bank. To put in perspective, the cut-off yield for 10-year SDL ranged from 7.83 percent to 7.86 percent at an auction on June 21, according to data from the RBI. Prior to that, at an auction on June 14, Tamil Nadu’s 10-year paper was sold at a cut-off yield of 7.94 percent, while Haryana’s 10-year bond was sold at 7.95 percent. … [Read more...] about States’ borrowing cost set to rise on higher debt supply, RBI’s rate cues, experts say

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A IF Bank Negara Malaysia’s eight-member monetary policy committee (MPC) raises the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) at its next scheduled meeting on July 6, it will mark its first back-to-back increase since mid-2010, when interest rates were normalised following the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. It will not be the first central bank to do so. Compared with just a month ago, more economists now (at the time of writing) reckon that a 25bps hike will happen in July, but many still think a pause is possible in July ahead of the Hari Raya Aidiladha celebrations. In any case, at least one more rate increase (if not two) is expected to take place by the conclusion of the Sept 8 meeting to bring the OPR to at least 2.25% (if not 2.5%), consensus data show. “Our house has also shifted expectations for Bank Negara to frontload … [Read more...] about The State Of The Nation: What the Fed’s 75bps hike and near 4% terminal rate mean for the OPR

Reserve Bank of India The central bank is fighting twin battles at this point. It needs to control inflation that is way above its mid-term target of 4 percent and has been consistently above the upper band of 6 percent. On the other hand, the nascent recovery seen on the economic growth, needs to be supported. The central bank-led monetary policy committee (MPC) clearly misjudged the inflation trajectory for a prolonged period in its bid to support growth recovery. The stance remained accommodative for a long time which led to differences even within the panel. In May, the rate-setting panel then embarked on a catch-up game by initiating sharp rate hikes in two rounds, totaling 90 basis points (bps). One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The MPC has signalled to take the rate back to pre-pandemic levels. The repo rate, which is currently at 4.9 percent, can go up by at least 100 basis points, according to economists considering the inflation … [Read more...] about Banking Central| Where will the repo rate settle ultimately?

- A + A BANGKOK (June 27): A tightening of Thai monetary policy will be conducted so it does not disrupt the recovery of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, central bank officials said on Monday, reinforcing market expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. Thailand's economy will continue growing this year and next, driven by domestic demand and tourism, and could beat forecasts despite a risk that inflation will be higher than expected, Bank of Thailand (BOT) officials told an analysts' meeting. The BOT will try to prevent the economy from overheating, which would cause demand-driven inflation, by gradually shifting from the current very accommodative policy, assistant governor Piti Disyatat told the meeting. The BOT's task was to help the economy take off smoothly, he said. "It's a challenge for monetary policy to release the accelerator pedal appropriately and timely so that the recovery has good momentum," Piti said, referring to the current … [Read more...] about Thai central bank says policy tightening will not disrupt economy recovery

- A + A FRANKFURT (June 27): European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis. As president Christine Lagarde and colleagues meet in the resort of Sintra for their version of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Jackson Hole conference, they face competing tasks: cool the fastest consumer-price growth in the euro's history without delivering an economic downturn or sparking a 2012-style spike in borrowing costs in Italy, the region's third-largest economy, and other vulnerable states. Markets are already sounding an alert on what may lie ahead. Italian government bond yields jumped past 4% this month for the first time since 2014 as investors took fright at the ECB's plan to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade. With that hike locked in, and another … [Read more...] about ECB’s pivot towards rate hikes feeds fears of new bond crisis

- A + A KUALA LUMPUR (June 27): S&P Global Ratings has revised upward its rating outlook on Malaysia’s long term sovereign credit ratings to stable from negative, reflecting its expectation that the country’s steady growth momentum and strong external position will remain in place for the next two years. At the same time, it anticipates that the policymaking environment will be supportive of restoring fiscal settings to a firmer footing. “We revised the outlook to stable in recognition of Malaysia's consistently strong growth trend that is faster than sovereigns of similar income level. Though Malaysia's budget deficits remain high, we expect its growth dynamics to offset vulnerabilities associated with its weak fiscal settings. In addition, political commitment to resume fiscal consolidation post-pandemic is strong, in our view," S&P said in a statement on Monday (June 27). At the same time, it affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term foreign … [Read more...] about S&P revised Malaysia’s rating outlook to stable from negative on strong growth momentum, external position

- A + A SHANGHAI (June 27): China's yuan edged up against the dollar on Monday (June 27) after Shanghai declared victory against Covid-19 over the weekend, but gains were limited ahead of more convincing signs of a recovery. Shanghai, the country's commercial hub, will gradually resume dining-in at restaurants from June 29 after the city's Communist Party chief declared victory in the battle against the latest wave of Covid-19 shocks that put the city under lockdown for two months. Shanghai lifted a two month citywide lockdown on June 1, but many establishments have remained unable to offer indoor dining since mid-March. Traders said the news lifted market sentiment, but investors remained cautious and looked to data to gauge the pace of the economic recovery before placing huge bets on the currency. June economic indicators, including official factory activity data, are due later this week. Prior to market opening, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the … [Read more...] about Yuan edges up as Shanghai declares Covid-19 victory; outlook remains cautious

- A + A (June 27): Hong Kong’s exports surprisingly declined in May as trade with China continued to face disruptions from Covid and other global headwinds stalled momentum. Overall exports slid 1.4% last month from a year earlier, reversing April’s 1.1% gain, the Census and Statistics Department said Monday. Economists had expected an improvement of 4.3%. Imports rose 1.3% in May from a year earlier, also worse than economists’ forecast of a 4.8% expansion. The trade deficit was HK$36.7 billion (US$4.7 billion), worse than estimates and the fourth straight month the city has recorded a deficit. May’s decline in exports comes after an unexpected uptick improvement in April, when exports to China were still falling but not as severely as in March. This time around, trade with China fell 10.1%, worse than April’s 9.4% drop, the statistics bureau said. The decline in the value of exports was attributed to “increasing headwinds” faced by the global economy, the … [Read more...] about Hong Kong exports post surprise fall on China curbs, global woes

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A DESPITE the reopening of borders since April 1, when Malaysia allowed quarantine-free travel for fully-vaccinated travellers into the country, it will be some time before the hotel industry regains a strong footing following the debilitating lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. In fact, it may well take another year at least before operators can operate at their full capacities at pre-pandemic levels, Malaysian Association of Hotel Owners (MAHO) president Tan Sri Teo Chiang Hong tells The Edge. “Average occupancy rates are an estimated 30% to 50% of pre-pandemic levels,” says Teo, who is owner and director of One World Hotel in Petaling Jaya, Selangor. He notes that resort destinations are seeing full occupancies while city hotels still face low occupancy. As at November 2020, a total of 204 tourism and hotel operators had shut down following the impact of the … [Read more...] about The State of the Nation: Hospitality industry struggling to cope despite borders reopening, brighter prospects

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A THE momentum to adopt environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria and sustainability practices in the capital market has picked up significantly in the past few years. By the third quarter of 2021, assets in global sustainable funds hit a record high, according to investment research firm Morningstar. At the same time, more than 70 countries — including the biggest polluters — have set a net-zero target and over 1,200 companies have put in place science-based targets to reach net-zero emissions, according to the United Nations. In Malaysia, at least 44 out of the 54 Sustainable and Responsible Investment (SRI) funds approved by Securities Commission Malaysia were launched in the last two years. As at December 2021, 94% of the top 50 listed companies in Malaysia had ESG strategies and 68% had emissions reduction policies, according to PwC’s research. … [Read more...] about HONOURING MALAYSIA’S BEST PERFORMERS IN ESG EXCELLENCE: The Edge to roll out Malaysia’s first ESG awards