Monetary policy

Major Moves The European and U.S. equity markets rebounded today in anticipation of future central bank dovishness. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has signaled that it is potentially looking to cut interest rates as early as this month, and the European Central Bank (ECB) announced at its monetary policy meeting today that it expects key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the first half of 2020.” Traders are buying large-cap stocks in anticipation that low rates could both stimulate the economy and make it cheaper for large corporations to continue funding their share buyback programs with more debt. They are also anticipating that low rates and economic expansion could spur demand for crude oil . Crude oil can be a great indicator for anticipated economic strength. Oil prices tend to climb when traders expect the economy to get stronger, and they tend to fall when traders expect the economy to get weaker. Crude oil bounced … [Read more...] about Dovish ECB Joins the FOMC to Rally Markets

Major Moves The U.S. stock market has had a rough two weeks. Beginning on May 22, bearish pressure started to mount as crude oil prices started falling and stocks in the energy sector began to lose ground. By the next day (May 23), the bearishness had spread throughout the market, and the major indexes started pulling back. While many of the sectors in the S&P 500 have been moving in lock step with each other during these turbulent weeks, a few have stood out for either their out-performance or their under-performance. You can see how this has played out in the hourly sector-comparison chart below, which uses the following sector-based ETFs managed by State Street Global Advisors: Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLK ) Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLRE ) Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLP ) Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLY ) Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLV ) Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund ( … [Read more...] about Can the FOMC Combat the Impact of Tariffs?

The stock market's robust rally and Wall Street's optimistic mood have a growing number of observers worried, including investors, strategists , and even high ranking officials of the Federal Reserve . The “market is up almost every day, and one can almost bank on a ramp higher during the last 15 minutes,” Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer (CIO) at The Leuthold Group, said in a note cited by Barron's . "' Corrections ’ are now events that last hours, not days or weeks,” he added. The growing concern is that we are witnessing a replay of the Dotcom Bubble of the late 1990s, based on several troubling parallels. The table below and the discussion that follows cover key points in Barron's detailed analysis. 7 Signs Of A New Bubble Venture capital investments in tech companies at excessive levels A rush of highly-touted tech IPOs coming to market Financial crises in emerging market countries The Fed paused interest rate hikes in 1998, as they have … [Read more...] about 7 Ways That 2019 Mirrors The Dotcom Bubble

- A + A WASHINGTON (May 26): The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week as the labour market remains tight amid strong demand for workers, despite rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions. But the outlook for the economy is uncertain, with other data on Thursday showing corporate profits falling across the board in the first quarter. Some economists believe the erosion of profits and falling share prices could force companies to pause hiring or start laying off workers. Several retailers, including Walmart Inc have lowered their full-year earnings forecasts, citing high inflation. Snap, the parent of Snapchat, issued a profit warning this week, sparking a sell-off of social media stocks. "The biggest expense for most companies is labor always," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "High-flying tech companies have seen their share prices plummet which will force … [Read more...] about US labour market hot, but declining profits cast shadow over economy

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The stock market rebounded for a second day in a row on Thursday, on track to snap a seven-week losing streak, as recession fears cooled amid a slew of strong quarterly earnings reports that boosted investor sentiment. Key Facts Stocks moved higher as investors continued to assess the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, over 500 points, while the S&P 500 gained 2% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.7%. Despite seven straight weeks of losses pushing the S&P 500 briefly into bear market territory last Friday, stocks are on track to post a strong rebound this week: The Dow and S&P 500 are up over 4% and the Nasdaq more than 3%. “Last week’s doom and gloom about the all-important U.S. consumer may have been overdone, along with the dire recession headlines,” says Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, about the … [Read more...] about Dow Jumps 500 Points, Market Rebounds As Strong Earnings Alleviate ‘Dire Recession Headlines’

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Recent monetary policy tightenings have triggered steep declines in many financial markets, including crypto assets which have lost almost $1 trillion in market capitalization in just one week. Extreme market volatility triggered the disintegration of the Terra ecosystem . TerraUSD ( UST ), a dollar- pegged stablecoin, and its sister token LUNA plummeted and delisted, saddling investors with billions in losses and accelerating the wreckage of other cryptocurrencies. This debacle debunked tall claims of an innovative crypto-financial ecosystem supposedly immune to traditional finance (TradeFi) bank runs . Stablecoins, a breed of cryptocurrencies touted for their purported stability, became vulnerable during the week ending May 13th, 2022, showing a glimpse of how things can go horribly wrong. The algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its dollar peg, collapsed, and wiped out nearly $50 billion in market value. The Terra … [Read more...] about Innovative Crypto Stablecoins- Still At Infancy And Experiencing Growing Pains

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Inflation is becoming a problem. Whether it becomes a long-term structural one or dissipates after the pandemic, no one knows. As the old saw goes, economic forecasts make tarot cards appear respectable. Jack Dorsey recently predicted hyperinflation , an exponential decrease in the value of paper money akin to what happened in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s—or Zimbabwe in 2007 . For that to occur, monetary policy would have to ignore the problem, failing to raise rates as the data required. A Fed that lacks political independence could make this mistake, but it’s a low-probability outcome. Even double-digit inflation—in a throwback to the seventies—is unlikely, but possible. After all, economic conditions, like bellbottoms, go in and out of fashion. The most likely scenario is some prolonged elevation to inflation (in the mid-single digits) as labor shortages and supply-chain problems continue to pressure prices. No … [Read more...] about The Best Inflation Hedge You Already Own

- A + A (May 27): Wall Street closed sharply higher on Thursday after optimistic retail earnings outlooks and waning concerns about overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve put investors in a buying mood. All three major U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains, with economically sensitive consumer discretionary and microchip stocks beating the broader market. The tech-laden Nasdaq surged the most - its 2.7% advance was powered by gains in Apple Inc, Tesla Inc and Amazon.com Inc. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are on track to snap their longest losing streaks in decades, during which the benchmark S&P plummeted 14.1% and brought it within striking distance of being confirmed as a bear market. At current levels, all three indexes are poised to notch their biggest weekly gains since mid-March. "With first quarter earnings essentially over and coming in better than expected, combined with the Fed indicating that they are … [Read more...] about Wall Street jumps on retailer outlook hikes, ebbing Fed fears

From left to right: Benjamin Diokno, Felipe Medalla, Manuel Bonoan, and Anton Lagdameo Earning an early thumbs-up from business groups, President-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday announced new appointments to his economic team, emphasizing his incoming administration’s focus on steering the economy out of a slump. A day after he and Vice President-elect Sara Duterte were proclaimed winners by Congress in the May 9 polls, Marcos said he was nominating Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno as his finance secretary and then President Joseph Estrada’s former National Economic Development Authority (Neda) chief Felipe Medalla as BSP governor. Diokno has been the BSP governor since 2019. He was budget secretary under the Duterte administration from 2016 to 2019 and under the Estrada regime from 1998 to 2001. He was named best central banker in the world, the first for a Filipino, by London-based international finance magazine The Banker. He holds a Ph.D. in … [Read more...] about Business groups nod as Marcos forms economic team