Mas tightens monetary policy

- A + A (June 23): Singapore’s key inflation gauge accelerated for a third month to the fastest in almost 14 years, bolstering the case for further monetary policy tightening and stronger action to buffer consumers from the drag of rising prices. The central bank’s closely watched core inflation print, which excludes private transport and accommodation, rose by 3.6% from a year ago in May, according to a joint statement on Thursday (June 23) from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). That pace, the fastest since December 2008, matches the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, and compares with 3.3% in April. The increase was due to inflation across food, services, retail goods and energy, they said in the statement. They also repeated a warning from last month that prices will pick up in the coming months before easing toward year end as external pressures recede, while flagging upside risk from geopolitical … [Read more...] about Singapore’s faster inflation adds pressure to tighten policy

- A + A (June 22): Jack Ma’s Ant Group Co. is poised to apply for a key financial license as soon as this month, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign that its lengthy overhaul following a squashed 2020 listing is getting closer to satisfying China’s financial regulators. The People’s Bank of China intends to accept Ant’s application to become a financial holding company once it’s submitted and will then start a review process, which could take months, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. Officials will examine Ant’s capital strength and business plans, as well as the compliance of its shareholders and senior management before a final signoff. The moves would mark a crucial development in Ant’s revamp, affirming that the company can maintain its financial operations under the supervision of the central bank. While that clears a path for it to eventually revive a public offering, Ma’s fintech juggernaut will be a … [Read more...] about Jack Ma’s Ant to apply for key license as soon as this month

SINGAPORE (The Straits Times/Asia News Network): While the risk of a recession in the United States keeps mounting, chances are that Singapore and most Asian economies will avoid a deep and prolonged downturn. A growing number of economists and policymakers worldwide now see higher odds of a recession in the US, and possibly in Europe as well, in the next six to 12 months. But some are also pointing out mitigating factors that may soften the blow, including resilient consumer demand in developed markets backed by excessive savings. Asian economies, including Singapore, could get more help from a possible counter-cyclical economic recovery in China and the low interest rate policy in Japan that favours growth versus countering inflation. The latest warning on the US outlook came from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell, who finally admitted on Wednesday (June 22) that the steep interest rate hikes needed to rein in inflation could tip the US economy into recession. His … [Read more...] about US recession will drag Asia’s growth but region may avoid a sharp downturn: analysts

- A + A BENGALURU (June 24): The Philippine peso fell for the eighth straight session on Friday (June 24) as markets feared a modest rate hike by the country's central bank may not be enough to curb surging inflation, while other Asian currencies rose against a weaker US dollar. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) stuck to a 25-basis-point increase in its benchmark rate on Thursday for a second month in a row, fearing that more aggressive tightening could compromise growth. "Concerns over the gradual pace of BSP hikes, weaker budget balance, as well as policy uncertainty under the new president could be adding to PHP drags in the interim," Maybank analysts said in a note. The peso was on track for its worst week since June 2013. It was down 2% during the week, and hovered at a more than 16-and-a-half-year intraday low notched earlier in the week. The Thai baht was 0.1% weaker intraday, touching a more than five-year low, likely pressured by portfolio outflows, … [Read more...] about Philippine peso on track for worst week in nine years; Asian stocks gain

- A + A (June 23): Opposition politicians in Singapore won’t support the government’s plan to proceed with a goods and services tax (GST) hike amid inflationary concerns. The Workers’ Party on Wednesday (June 22) said it “cannot support” the decision to raise the consumption-based tax and will “continue to argue” against any proposed increase. The statement, posted on the party’s Facebook page, came after Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said the timing of the tiered tax hike won’t be revised despite concerns over mounting price pressures. The tax is set to rise to 8% from 7% in January next year and then to 9% in 2024. Inflation in the trade-reliant business hub has surged, leading the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten monetary policy three times in the past eight months. The core inflation print for May, to be announced on Thursday, is expected to climb further from a decade-high of 3.3% in April, according to a Bloomberg survey. Earlier this … [Read more...] about Singapore opposition politicians won’t support GST hike plans

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Despite increased concerns over a looming recession, a growing number of experts believe that upcoming discounts and easing supply chain disruptions may help cool the rate of inflation more quickly than expected, potentially offering a much-needed respite to cash-strapped Americans and investors wary over the implications of rapidly tightening monetary policy. Key Facts Though spiking gas prices may push overall inflation higher this year, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has peaked “and will fall faster than markets and the Federal Reserve expect,” economists at Pantheon Macro wrote in a Wednesday note. With a stronger dollar starting to make imports cheaper and rising inventories starting to quell supply shortages, the economists project inflation, which unexpectedly hit a 41-year high of 8.6% in May, will fall to 4.9% by the beginning of next year as core inflation … [Read more...] about Why A Strong Dollar And Retail Inventory Blunders Could Help Push Inflation Down By Next Year

- A + A NEW YORK (June 25): With US stocks on track to mark their worst first half of the year in more than 50 years, investors are studying a range of metrics to determine whether the coming months could bring relief or more of the same. By any stretch, the first half of 2022 (1H22) has been a challenging one for investors. The S&P 500 is down around 18% year-to-date, on track for its worst first half of any year since 1970, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) tightens monetary policy in its fight against the highest inflation in decades. Bonds, which investors typically count on to counterbalance stock declines in their portfolios, have fared little better: The US bond market, as measured by the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index fund, is down 10.8% for the year to date, putting it on pace for its worst performance in modern history. With investor expectations fluctuating between continued high inflation and an economic … [Read more...] about Bruised US stock investors brace for more pain in 2H22

The 25-basis-point (bp) increase in the key interest rate of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced on Thursday that affirmed a gradual path to tightening of monetary policy was a disappointment to analysts who believe the BSP should be more aggressive. But Pantheon Macroeconomics said the next hike might not come until next year. Miguel Chanco, the United Kingdom-based research firm’s chief economist for emerging markets in Asia, said in a commentary that this week’s rate hike—a repeat of the Monetary Board (MB) decision in their meeting last May—was “a no-brainer.” Chanco said this was so, especially considering that BSP Governor and MB chair Benjamin Diokno had explicitly said that this month’s decision was likely a 25-bp increase in the interest rate on the central bank’s overnight borrowings from banks. “Not surprisingly, inflation remains front-and-center in the board’s mind, as it raised its inflation forecasts further to 5 percent and 4.2 percent for this year … [Read more...] about Contrarians see BSP pushing back next rate hike to 2023

The markets are yet to find their trough, and real interest rates in the US (down 700bps from pre-pandemic levels) are likely to outgrow the hike in India (down only 300bps from pre-pandemic levels). This is likely to accelerate capital outflows and form a vicious cycle impacting the currency, inflation, real yields and causing further capital drain, believes IIFL Securities Chairman R Venkataraman. At an interview with Moneycontrol , he says that that markets are some way off from the bottom and there could be another 15 percent correction from here. "We suggest Cipla , SBI Life , HUL , ITC , Ashok Leyland , Persistent Systems , Deepak Nitrite , ICICI Bank as our top picks after a severe correction," Venkataraman shares. Excerpts from the interview: What is the message you get from the central banks that continued rate hikes and hinted more hikes to control inflation? Central banks worldwide were clearly taken by surprise at the violent inflationary … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | More capital drain on cards, expect 15% more correction, says R Venkataraman of IIFL Securities

- A + A (June 22): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Central Bank will keep raising interest rates to tame inflation and conceded that a US recession was “certainly a possibility”. “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate,” Powell said Wednesday in his semiannual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. “Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.” Powell’s remarks largely reiterated comments at a press conference last week after he and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee raised their benchmark lending rate 75 basis points — the biggest increase since 1994 — to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. While Powell told reporters last week that another 75 basis-point increase, or a 50 basis-point move, was on the table for the next meeting in late July, Wednesday’s text made … [Read more...] about Powell sees ongoing rate hikes, says recession a ‘possibility’