Indexed to inflation bond

The good news is that yields in US Treasury securities may be near their peak. The bad news is that makes the recession I’ve been forecasting since February more likely. The current campaign by the US Federal Reserve to raise its main policy interest rate — the overnight federal funds rate — in response to rapid inflation normally precipitates a business downturn. Since the central bank adopted this measure in 1954, there have been 11 recessions, and only three exceptions, or soft landings — in 1966, 1984 and 1996. A soft landing occurs as the central bank lowers the funds rate after a series of increases with no recession unfolding. Until the Fed cuts rates, it’s uncertain as to whether its credit-tightening campaign is over or has merely paused. My analysis of post-World War II history reveals that a 100-basis-point rise in the funds rate is linked to a 36-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury note yield, and a 24-basis-point increase in the 30-year Treasury bond yield. … [Read more...] about Bond market rally signals an impending economic recession

A screen in Hana Bank's trading room in central Seoul shows the Kospi closing at 2,322.64 points on Wednesday, down 45.35 points, or 1.91 percent, from the previous trading day. [YONHAP] Stocks plunged by almost 2 percent Thursday to slump for a second straight session amid recession woes and a dim outlook for the chipmaking sector. The won rose against the dollar. The Kospi retreated 45.35 points, or 1.91 percent, to close at 2,332.64 points. Trading volume was moderate at about 506 million shares worth some 8.7 trillion won ($6.7 billion), with losers outnumbering gainers 699 to 183. Institutional investors offloaded a net 321 billion won, and foreigners sold 234 billion won, while retail investors bought 521 billion won. Investors remained cautious after a near 2 percent fall on Wednesday, spooked by soaring inflation and weak economic sentiment data in the United States. Overnight, the central bank chiefs of major economies warned that the world's high inflation … [Read more...] about Stocks fall almost 2% for second straight session

- A + A LONDON (June 30): Investors knew that, after two years of COVID-19 chaos, 2022 would be a bumpy ride, but nobody expected this - the most turbulent first half global markets have ever seen. To grasp just how torrid things have been, consider two things. MSCI's 47-country world stocks index has suffered its biggest 1H drop since its creation in 1990. At same time, 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds - the benchmark of global borrowing markets and traditional go-to asset in troubled times - have had their worst first half since 1788. Why? Russia's invasion of Ukraine supercharged what was already fast-rising inflation, forcing the big central banks to jack up interest rates and politicians to warn of new world orders. The result? A $13 trillion wipeout in world stocks, a 15.5% plunge Japan's yen, Italy's worst rout since the euro zone crisis, and what is shaping up to be the strongest commodities rally since World War I. Add to that Russia being gouged out the … [Read more...] about Markets in 1H: The almost perfect storm