Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin The big spike in the Payroll data (+517K) was out of kilter with what has been occurring in the rest of the economy and in other labor market data. Financial markets always shoot first and ask questions later, so, on Friday, equity markets fell and bond yields rose on the fear that the Fed would now have a great excuse to raise interest rates even further than what was already priced in. The far-right hand sides of the above charts show the violent up spikes in the yields of the 10-Yr. and 2-Yr. T-Notes on Friday (February 3). As reported by various reliable sources with deep research capabilities, most or all of the +517K job gains wasn’t due to new job creation, but to benchmark revisions, seasonal adjustments, and population controls , all keywords for what we can only describe as statistical magic . Morgan Stanley MS concluded that without the population adjustments, the Household Survey (which was up an even … [Read more...] about Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data
Indexed foreign key
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Over the last year a number of you have pointed out the odd typo or two in my Sunday note. For example, one eagle eyed reader in Brazil registered that I had written ‘South China Sean’ rather than ‘South China Sea’, which is a Freudian slip of sorts. The real reason the quality of the note may have slipped is that this time last year my ‘editor’ Nicholas Benachi, passed away. In addition to being a good friend, he made sure that the logic and quality of the note were up to scratch. One of his favourite greetings and ‘sign-offs’ was ‘Strength and Honour’, which may have been inspired by his love of bushido and his family’s ties to Greece, not to mention a sweeping appreciation of history. It is a phrase that comes to mind more and more often in a world where the moral pendulum is swinging wildly, and I often find myself using it as a maxim to scrutinise people, places and projects. Here are a few examples. Strength … [Read more...] about What Makes Economies Strong?
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Key takeaways An earnings recession may be imminent as consumer spending slows and high costs undercut profits on Wall Street As inflation and layoffs continue, talk of an earnings recession has investors worried Investors can protect themselves by diversifying their portfolios to include defensive stocks The financial world has been sounding the alarm recently over a potential recession in the U.S. and the global economy. The Federal Reserve is still fighting inflation, big tech companies are continuing layoffs, and companies are gearing up to report their 4th quarter earnings. With that, fear of an earnings recession is mounting. Morgan Stanley's investment chief warned clients that incoming earnings reports would underwhelm investors, potentially pushing major stock indexes to two-year lows even if the economy avoids a recession. As we head into earnings season, investors are keeping watch to see if … [Read more...] about What Is An Earnings Recession, And How Does It Affect Stock Prices?
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin What Happened In 2022 Even before a months-long winter engulfed the digital-assets market, 2022 was shaping up as the year that Washington began to get serious about regulating the cryptocurrency business. That resolve was bolstered throughout the year by a series of calamities that included a massive stablecoin failure of terraUSD and the associated luna, with contagion effects that impacted BlockFi, Celsius Network and Voyager Digital exchange that called into question the ability of crypto exchanges to be digital asset custodians that would protect investors’ assets. Essentially, the crypto industry managed to recreate the same risks of the traditional banking system, in which the institutions that were responsible for holding customer’s assets were simultaneously lending funds, leading to leverage, liquidity and capital conflicts. Before the year could end, the third-largest exchange, FTX – previously seen as a … [Read more...] about 2022 Year In Review: Crypto Policy Experiences Massive Turbulence In Congress Amid TerraUSD And FTX Failures
ILLUSTRATION BY ALBERT RODRIGUEZ It’s been six months since President Marcos was sworn into office. If we liken Mr. Marcos’ six-year term to the well-loved game of basketball, we are now in the second half of the first of six games. The first half of Game 1 was filled with many challenges. A Pulse Asia survey last September 2022 showed that the top concerns of Filipinos are controlling inflation, increasing the pay of workers and creating more jobs. Unfortunately, these continue to burden Filipinos into halftime of Game 1. Before the first “game” ends on June 30, 2023, we’d like to share some of the administration’s notable wins during its first six months and some reflections on how to sustain the fight against these challenges. Wins First among Mr. Marcos’ wins is the appointment of credible and experienced economic managers. This means that we have a strong team to overcome the pandemic’s lingering effects on the economy. Second, several executive actions were made … [Read more...] about Reflections on Marcos’ 1st 6 months
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The Federal Aviation Administration issued a ground stop for several major airports in North Carolina and South Carolina Saturday afternoon in a “national security effort” as a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon is believed to float overhead. Key Facts The ground stop , which is in effect until 2:45 p.m. Saturday afternoon, applies to three airports in Wilmington, North Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Pilots are not able to operate any aircraft during the ground stop, which comes several hours after a Charlotte, North Carolina, NBC affiliate reported the massive balloon had been spotted over the city. U.S. officials believe the balloon is being used as part of a Chinese spy mission, although China’s Foreign Ministry denied the claim, saying it’s a civilian weather balloon that drifted west. This is a developing story. Key Background The … [Read more...] about FAA Grounds Planes In Carolinas As Chinese Spy Balloon Suspected Nearby
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The suspected Chinese spy balloon was shot Saturday morning, after the Biden Administration gave the go-ahead to take it down after it floated over the Atlantic Ocean east of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, following calls from lawmakers to act urgently on the mysterious balloon. Key Facts U.S. Air Force fighter jets shot the balloon shortly after 2:30 p.m. Saturday, federal officials confirmed to the Associated Press . White House officials had been considering a plan to shoot down the spy balloon once it passed over South Carolina and into federal waters, where it could be recovered and debris could be collected, the Associated Press reported. It comes as the Federal Aviation Administration issued a ground stop for three major airports in North Carolina and South Carolina in a “national security effort,” prohibiting pilots from operating aircraft at the airports. In an unconfirmed … [Read more...] about U.S. Shoots Down Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon Over Atlantic (Updating)