The only bit of good news is that the number of new cases is dropping in China, but it’s early days yet and who’s to say that once the restrictions are relaxed it won’t flare up again. The Hobson’s choice is between making sure the virus has been stamped out and letting the economy suffer till then or try and get the economy moving soon and risk a recurrence of the disease, which could lead to the recovery becoming W-shaped. Xi Jinping has opted for the latter course, with his insistence that the 2020 economic targets for China should remain unchanged. … [Read more...] about Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Time to pay the bill?
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Thankfully, the World Bank doesn’t think things will get so bad. Its baseline scenario is US GDP growth will slow by 0.4 percentage points in 2019 and another 0.8 percentage points in 2020. For China, its estimate is a slowdown in growth by 0.3 percentage points this year and no further slowdown in 2020.Subscribe to Moneycontrol Pro's Annual plan for Rs 399/- for the first year. Use coupon PRO2020 (Available on Web & Android only). … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | When elephants fight, how badly does the grass get trampled?
India needs foreign money to fund its current account deficit, so it’s important that the government sticks to the straight and narrow fiscal path. Macro-economic stability, rather than populist measures or trying to push growth at all costs is needed to weather global volatility, which is pretty much inevitable these days. … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | Was the recent market fall worse than the taper tantrum?
But while they may recognise the need for a stimulus, China’s very high levels of corporate debt make a balancing act necessary. That is why reports indicate only a modest increase in the budget deficit from 2.6 to 2.8 percent this year. There’s also the risk that any excess stimulus will only lead to higher property prices. China’s recent efforts at boosting lending have been targeted at specific sectors. … [Read more...] about Opinion | China faces two options: Domestic stimulus or trade truce with US
The leading indicators for September showed that among the major economies, it was only India that showed growth gaining momentum. Growth was stable in the US, China and Japan, while Russia and Germany showed signs of easing growth momentum. The other big economies such as the UK, France, Brazil showed easing growth. Overall, the balance was still tilted towards stable growth momentum. … [Read more...] about Opinion | Can Trump heroically bring the world economy back from the brink?