Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin The July 2022 issue of the respected Foreign Affairs journal contains an article that forecasts ‘America’s ‘Coming Age of Instability’ (by Steven Levitsky and Lucian Way). That the article posits America’s descent towards Hungarian/Russian style autocracy, something that would have been surprising ten years ago, but today is the norm, chillingly so. For example, in January 2022, the front cover of the Economist magazine that shows the Republican Party in the USA ‘walking away from democracy’ It is remarkable in the sense that journals like Foreign Affairs, and the broader foreign policy community in America have habitually encouraged the spread of democracy across the world and on occasion pronounced themselves worried about democracy in Europe. More troubling for the rest of the world, that the lodestar of modern democracy is beset by institutional decay and the withering of its democracy is a grave concern. It is … [Read more...] about Is Roe Vs Wade Just The Latest Blow To Democracy?
How are china eastern flights
What Will It Take To Get Inflation Down? Is Oil The Key?
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Six months ago, I tried my hand at imagining how 2022 might transpire in markets, economies and politics. Whilst I am usually highly sceptical about forecasting (‘its role is to make astrology respectable’), my prognostics were sufficiently telling that I will now claim a certain wisdom. The secret is to make ambiguous statements about a wide range of events, and some of them will stick. In this respect I prefigured Boris Johnson’s difficulties, the war in Ukraine (Bosnia was also a potential hotspot), Macron’s win and China closing down. Looking ahead, it is stating the obvious that the shape of the next six months will be determined by the damage caused by the war in Ukraine and the policy response to high inflation though what is more interesting and challenging is to frame their secondary effects. Market Stress Perhaps the easiest factor to parse is the change in monetary policy from the Fed and … [Read more...] about What Will It Take To Get Inflation Down? Is Oil The Key?
Live updates | Italy sees no NATO military escalation
The Associated Press MADRID (AP) — The Latest on the NATO summit in Madrid: ___ Italian Premier Mario Draghi says plans for an increased U.S. military presence in Europe don’t amount to a military escalation within NATO. Draghi says the increase announced Wednesday by the White House would amount to just 70 additional U.S. troops on Italian soil and an air defense system that had already been planned. But he added at the NATO summit in Madrid: “You have to be ready.” Draghi said overall Italy is committing 10,000 troops to NATO. That includes 2,000 divided among the Italian command of NATO in Bulgaria, its presence in Romania and staffing of air patrols over the Baltics. Another 8,000 are on standby in Italy “if eventually necessary.” ___ — Turkey lifts objections to Sweden, Finland joining NATO ahead of alliance summit — Biden, NATO to beef up force posture amid Russian aggression — Macron says Russia can’t win in Ukraine — The AP Interview: Spanish PM … [Read more...] about Live updates | Italy sees no NATO military escalation
PINKERTON: Blessed Are The Peacemakers — And The Rebuilders
Today we remember the gallant Americans who fought on D-Day and on all the other battlefronts of World War Two. And yet we should also remember that Americans fought for peace . As President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared in his D-Day radio address , “They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest,” he added, to bring a “sure peace … invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men.” Also today, we are in a new struggle against the schemings of unworthy men: Vladimir Putin and his army of “Orcs.” And while we are not ourselves fighting, we are helping. The vast majority of Americans agree that’s the right thing to do — polls show support above 70 % . Yet if helping Ukraine win its war for survival against Russia is a good idea, then helping to win the peace afterward is also a good idea. Fortunately, we have a successful precedent to point to: The Marshall Plan , launched 75 years ago on June 5, 1947, is also an anniversary worth celebrating. … [Read more...] about PINKERTON: Blessed Are The Peacemakers — And The Rebuilders
Oil rises as stockpiles at biggest US hub fall to 2014 low
- A + A (June 29): Oil rallied for a fourth day as a government report showed US stockpiles dropped last week, exacerbating global supply concerns with shipments from Libyan ports suspended. West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 2.4% to trade near US$114 a barrel. US crude stockpiles fell 2.76 million barrels last week, according to an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest storage hub in the US, fell to the lowest since October 2014. Data for two weeks was released simultaneously after an outage last week. Compounding market tightness, Libya's state oil company suspended shipments from two key eastern ports, while Iranian media said talks to revive a nuclear deal that could boost the country’s supply ended Wednesday with little effect. Output in Ecuador also has been lower due to ongoing protests. Those curbs to supply come as Shell Plc said spare energy production capacity is running very low, and the … [Read more...] about Oil rises as stockpiles at biggest US hub fall to 2014 low
Do Ukraine And Roe V. Wade Mean The End Of Democracy?
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin One of the striking images of recent current affairs is the leaders of France, Germany and Italy in a train compartment on their way to Kiev. Trains have played an important part in the history of European wars. For instance, armistices for the first and second world wars were signed in carriages and the professionalisation of the German army officer class in the lead up to the first world war was driven by the need to rationalise complicated train timetables (it’s a long story). Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Kiev offered him a much-needed chance to clarify his stance on the war, though his return to Paris was less happy as he subsequently lost his absolute majority in parliament. My sense is that the rise of the far left and right in France is less damaging in the near term for Macron – he will likely gain support from the right ‘Les Republicans’, to the long-term benefit of Edouard Philippe perhaps. What is more interesting in … [Read more...] about Do Ukraine And Roe V. Wade Mean The End Of Democracy?