Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline High-profile stock picker Cathie Wood conceded to being wrong about the duration of high inflation that's contributed to her fund's steep decline this year while doubling down on her belief that the economy has fallen into a recession—defying a vast majority of experts noting a recession is unlikely this year despite growing odds of one next year. Key Facts “We think we are in a recession,” Wood, the founder and CEO of New York City's Ark Invest, said on CNBC's Squawk Box Tuesday, noting that excess inventory driving up costs and leading to wider-than-expected profit shortfalls for corporations like Walmart and Target is a "big problem" facing the economy. Wood first declared the U.S. had fallen into a recession last week, warning on Twitter that massive inventories (often viewed as a leading indicator for demand) have the potential to unwind and hurt growth for the rest of the year, as consumer … [Read more...] about Cathie Wood Claims Economy Already In A Recession—Warns Inflation And Inventories Pose ‘Big Problem’
Grass fed meat market
What the Business Cycle is Telling us About a Recession
If you're looking for capitulation in 2022, it's in the bond market. And that tells you that investors' confidence in the global economy is very low. Inside the stock market, it's all about defense. Defensive stocks, which include big healthcare companies and dividend-paying value stocks, have been driving the gains. An index of global defensive stocks put together by Goldman Sachs, which is heavy in healthcare giants, has climbed to more than an 18-month high relative to the MSCI AC World Index. Inside the U.S., the defensive ETF ticker DEF has been outperforming the Spider ETF SPY all last week and all year. For market watchers, this feels a whole lot like a recession trade. While investors in the capital markets are battening the hatches for a recession, money in the private markets is also drying up. The value of venture capital deals in the U.S. dropped more than 25% in the second quarter to just $1 trillion, according to Dealogic . M&A activity in the United States … [Read more...] about What the Business Cycle is Telling us About a Recession
Russia’s last default sparked a crisis. This time is different
A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here . You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. London (CNN Business) This week, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution after it failed to pay interest on two bonds during a 30-day grace period that expired Sunday. But to put the event in context, we don't need to go as far back as 1918. Instead, we can look to 1998 . That's the year Russia defaulted on ruble-denominated bonds, triggering a "Moscow meltdown" that infected markets around the globe. Quick rewind: In August 1998 , following years of upheaval after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian government defaulted on its local debt and devalued the ruble. The move sparked chaos in Russia, driving up inflation, causing an economic contraction and triggering bank … [Read more...] about Russia’s last default sparked a crisis. This time is different