Representative image (Source: Reuters) The calculation of deaths due to Covid-19 in India is “quite complex” and there are “no definite answers”, former Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) scientist Dr Raman Gangakhedkar told News18.com, responding to the latest data released by the World Health Organization (WHO), which claims that Covid could have killed as many as 47.4 lakh people in India in 2020-21. The figure, disputed by the Indian government, is nearly 10 times the country’s official Covid death toll of 4.81 lakh at the end of 2021. The epidemiologist, who was the face of the country’s apex medical research agency during government briefings on Covid-19 last year, said when a modelling exercise is done, certain assumptions have to be used when data is not available. “India is a large country with a population over 134 crore. Here, health infrastructure, quality and timelines of data reporting vary between states. Use of one assumption for all states may not … [Read more...] about Calculation of India’s Covid deaths complex, modelling changes can affect numbers: Ex-ICMR Scientist
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Daily Voice | RBI seems behind the curve, expect monetary policy to turn hawkish, says Milind Muchhala of Julius Baer India
Reserve Bank of India Milind Muchhala, Executive Director, Julius Baer India, says the RBI seems to be behind the curve, especially in the current environment of rising inflationary pressures and various global central banks adopting a tightening stance. Julius Baer expects the RBI's stance to turn hawkish in the upcoming policy meet (February 8-10). On investments, he said: “We think it is a good time to focus on the infrastructure, construction, capital goods, banks and realty sectors. We have been positive on domestic cyclicals and the plays on revival of the domestic investment cycle for some time now.” Muchhala has over 20 years of experience in the industry, including in equity research, advisory and wealth management. We are nearing the end of December quarter earnings season . How do you read quarterly earnings announced so far? The Q3FY22 earnings season, at least until now, has been quite in line with expectations. While the season began on a decent note … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | RBI seems behind the curve, expect monetary policy to turn hawkish, says Milind Muchhala of Julius Baer India
India’s inflation heat: Soaring prices put pressure on government, RBI to act
The unprecedented rise in retail inflation numbers over the last few months have left many in the government worried. The government is hoping that the stealth measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will do the job but if the price pressure persists, New Delhi is preparing to step in to ease supply constraints, according to sources in the finance ministry. “We don’t want the food inflation to go up further,” said one official. “This has to be seen as a monetary policy problem. We had a kind of expansionary monetary policy due to the Covid pandemic. But the government will have to take certain measures to curb inflation,” the official added. “Wherever support is needed to control inflation, we will provide it,” the ministry official said, adding that wherever the government sees inflationary pressure, necessary measures will be taken. The official requested anonymity. The unrest is visible in the corridors of North Block Close The April inflation … [Read more...] about India’s inflation heat: Soaring prices put pressure on government, RBI to act
India buying Russian oil: I will put my country’s national interest, energy security first: FM Sitharaman
Finance Minister NIrmala Sitharaman | Illustration: Moneycontrol India has already started buying oil from Russia, since it has come at a discount at a time when the country needs it, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said. "We have received quite a number of barrels. I would think about 3-4 days of (national) supply. I would put my country's national interest and energy security first," Sitharaman said at the 17th edition of the CNBC-TV18 India Business Leaders Awards. If fuel is available at a discount, why shouldn't India buy it, the finance minister stressed. Sitharaman's comments come on a day when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is in New Delhi to discuss a range of issues, among which India's oil purchases from Russia, and a new proposed Rupee-Rouble trading mechanism, figure majorly. However, Sitharaman said the global economic climate has been impacted by the Ukraine crisis and that she was entering the new financial year with 'cautious optimism'. … [Read more...] about India buying Russian oil: I will put my country’s national interest, energy security first: FM Sitharaman
Franklin Templeton is here to stay in India, we are hiring and getting ready to launch new funds: Sanjay Sapre
Sanjay Sapre is the current President of Franklin Templeton India. His term ends in July 2022. Late evening on April 23, 2020, Sanjay Sapre , president of Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Ltd, made probably, one of the most awkward public announcements in his life—that of winding up six of the fund house’s marquee debt funds. These were all open-ended debt funds and weren’t meant to be shut down. Franklin Templeton believed that by winding up the schemes, it would buy the fund house time to sell its illiquid securities once market conditions improved. At the time, the COVID-19 global pandemic was declared, equity markets had fallen sharply and the debt market had frozen. Debt fund investors rushed to take their money out and fund houses everywhere saw redemptions. Franklin Templeton India was the worst affected because it had been running a high-yield strategy across six of its debt schemes, totaling assets worth Rs 25,215 crore as of April 23, 2020. Its … [Read more...] about Franklin Templeton is here to stay in India, we are hiring and getting ready to launch new funds: Sanjay Sapre
India in a relatively stronger position than many other countries: Finance secretary
Finance Secretary TV Somanathan Despite rising prices of fertilisers and crude oil putting pressure on the economy, India is “in a relatively stronger position than many other countries”, finance secretary T V Somanathan told CNBC TV18 in an exclusive interview. “India is adversely less affected than others (countries) who are adversely more affected than us,” Somanathan said. He argued that India has at least escaped the global foodgrain crisis in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia war, owing to the large domestic production of wheat. Saying that higher fertiliser prices pose a difficulty, Somanathan said it will have a big fiscal impact. “The government has already announced its fertiliser subsidy for the forthcoming season. There is going to be a substantial increase in the budget for fertiliser subsidies. It will certainly be above Rs 2 lakh crore,” he said. On crude oil, he said that while prices are high, they haven’t climbed much in the last one month. “Over the last 30 … [Read more...] about India in a relatively stronger position than many other countries: Finance secretary
Daily Voice | India will be among best markets globally, if inflation cools off: Rajesh Bhatia of ITI Long-Short Equity Fund
"It is difficult to call the trajectory of inflation, especially since the outlook is clouded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the spike in COVID cases in China. So we expect volatility in equity markets to continue in the short term as it navigates this inflation direction," says Rajesh Bhatia, Managing Director & CIO, ITI Long-Short Equity Fund, in an interview to Moneycontrol . If the inflation trajectory does cool off, India will be among the best markets in the world to invest in, he believes. Therefore, "earnings growth in double digits will lead to double-digit gains in stocks as well," says Bhatia, who has more than 30 years of investment experience in Indian equities, with the last 14 years in alternative investments (long-short fund management). Considering the current volatility, what could be the drivers for the market, and where could the market be headed in the near term, though most experts are still holding a positive outlook for the medium- … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | India will be among best markets globally, if inflation cools off: Rajesh Bhatia of ITI Long-Short Equity Fund
India’s inflation heat : As prices skyrocket, poor households face a double whammy, cut spending
Representative image Manisha Mohite, a 38-year-old street-food seller in Mumbai’s Goregaon, is struggling to feed her family of seven. Mohite may have to shut her five-month-old chaat stall in Goregaon, a slum area, because of the increasing prices of food articles, oil and cooking gas. Even to pay for daily necessities has become a struggle. “Almost everything is costly, right from onions and tomatoes to oil. Where do we get money,” Mohite said in between serving a customer. The number of customers visiting her stall has fallen sharply as inflation surged, she said. “No one wants to pay even Rs 5 more on a chaat plate. We may have to close this soon,” said Mohite. Close Consumer price inflation in April accelerated to 7.79 percent, the fastest pace since the 8.3 percent recorded in May 2014, indicating a sharp uptrend in prices across the board and remaining above the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance band of 6 percent for the fourth month … [Read more...] about India’s inflation heat : As prices skyrocket, poor households face a double whammy, cut spending
India’s steep yield curve is a concern for private capex, says Prof Jayanth Varma
According to Prof Jayanth R Varma, the steep yield curve is a sign that the market has confidence that the central bank will raise interest rates. India’s yield curve, which captures the long-term risk sentiment in the economy, is steep. In fact, it is at its steepest incline in history–the difference between the policy rate of 4.40% and 10-year G-Sec of 7.4% (approx) is 300 bps. It can impact long-term investment and therefore economic recovery , since companies plan their capex around the long-term interest rates. So why is the long-term rate rising so significantly more than the short-term one? Is it a sign of lack of confidence in the central bank to contain inflation? Jayanth R Varma, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, who had often been critical of the central bank’s accommodative stance saying that it can affect its inflation-fighting credibility, said that the steep yield curve is actually a vote of confidence in the RBI. “It is not a question about … [Read more...] about India’s steep yield curve is a concern for private capex, says Prof Jayanth Varma
Mercedes-Benz tackles tough market with wide portfolio, transparent pricing
New C-Class Mercedes-Benz, the country’s largest maker of luxury cars by volume, recently launched its entry-level premium sedan the C-class at a price that’s higher than ever before, but the Stuttgart-based auto major doesn’t see that as a barrier to pushing sales and driving volumes. Instead, its executives say that its product portfolio, which it claims is the widest in the category, combined with its transparent pricing mechanism, is future-proofing its business model, and prepping it for even higher sales. Mercedes-Benz India reported sales of 11,242 cars and SUVs in 2021, cementing it at the top of the luxury segment for the seventh year running and giving it a market share of around 41 percent. For Q1 this year, the company says it has already sold around 4,022 units. In terms of its range of products, Mercedes claims the largest selection in the Indian market. “We have the broadest portfolio of any manufacturer in India,” Martin Schwenk, Mercedes-Benz India’s CEO, … [Read more...] about Mercedes-Benz tackles tough market with wide portfolio, transparent pricing