The Nikkei India Composite PMI Output index, a yardstick of private sector economic activity both in the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 53.6 in December 2018 from a 25-month high of 54.5 in November. Since any reading above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month, the composite index shows economic activity remained strong in December, although the momentum slowed. While the New Year has started with worries about slowing global growth, the PMI survey says the Indian economy has so far remained relatively immune. … [Read more...] about 100-word take | PMI shows Goldilocks moment for Indian economy
Thankfully, the World Bank doesn’t think things will get so bad. Its baseline scenario is US GDP growth will slow by 0.4 percentage points in 2019 and another 0.8 percentage points in 2020. For China, its estimate is a slowdown in growth by 0.3 percentage points this year and no further slowdown in 2020.Subscribe to Moneycontrol Pro's Annual plan for Rs 399/- for the first year. Use coupon PRO2020 (Available on Web & Android only). … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | When elephants fight, how badly does the grass get trampled?
For equity markets in emerging markets, the 2018 scare was far worse. The World Bank said $24 billion fled these markets during the recent fall compared to $5.8 billion moving out during the taper tantrum in 2013, while $16.9 billion exited during the Chinese slowdown worries in 2015. The accompanying chart has the details. (See bottom) … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | Was the recent market fall worse than the taper tantrum?
We had Diwali last November, which always affects production, as stocks are bought in advance, businesses are closed and workers go home. The index of industrial production was up a huge 8.5 per cent in November 2017, so there's a big unfavourable base effect. Conversely, October 2018 IIP growth of 8.4 per cent was on top of 1.8 percent growth in October 2017. Diwali was in October in 2017. … [Read more...] about 100-Word Take | The 0.5% growth in IIP for November 2018 is not a sign of a slowdown
"There's been so much speculation about the contents of the deal... we know the broad outlines but it's not even clear whether the full terms of the deal will be made public," said Andrew Watkins, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group consultancy. … [Read more...] about Afghanistan’s future in the balance as US, Taliban sign deal