The Indian equity benchmarks closed flat after a highly volatile session on January 11, as investors turned cautious a day ahead of the release of domestic and US inflation data for cues on central banks' rate hike trajectory. The Sensex closed 9.98 points, or 0.02 percent, lower to 60,105.50 and the Nifty dropped 18.50 points, or 0.10 percent, to close at 17,895.70. Despite positive global cues, the market opened negative but recovered only to swing between gains and losses throughout the session. "After a volatile session, the domestic market anchored near the flat line as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of inflation data, though positive sentiments from global counterparts attempted multiple recoveries in between," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services. "India’s CPI for December is projected to remain unchanged, while the US CPI is estimated to further cool down from November’s level of 7.1 percent." Read More … [Read more...] about Taking Stock | Market ends flat amid high volatility; all eyes on inflation data
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Big Mac Index Shows Official CPI Under Reports Inflation (2022)
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin When I talk about inflation, I am often reminded of the 1997 movie “Conspiracy Theory” starring Mel Gibson and Julia Roberts. Before theopening credits have finished rolling, we understand that Gibson’s character is a crackpot cab driver who sees conspiracies everywhere. But our perception changes by the end of the film when we realize for ourselves that some of his theories are true. The message that the government lies to us about inflation and, as a result, quietly confiscates hundreds of billions of dollars from its citizens isn’t the easiest message to swallow. It only goes down when accompanied by a healthy drought of political cynicism. Quality Adjustments Under Report Inflation I've always thought that official CPI under reports inflation by approximately 1% per year. In 2008, I wrote a series of three articles in which I explained why . In 1996, a commission of five economists called The Boskin … [Read more...] about Big Mac Index Shows Official CPI Under Reports Inflation (2022)
Misery Index: Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills Rank 1-2 On List
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin This 2022 NFL season, like every other season since 1961, ended with an empty feeling for the Minnesota Vikings. At one point during the year, it appeared that Vikings were an elite team with a legitimate chance to win the first Super Bowl title in team history. That didn’t happen as their defense got exposed in regular-season losses to Dallas, Detroit and Green Bay, and then it got thoroughly taken apart by the middle of the pack New York Giants in the Wild Card game. The Vikings are now in the offseason, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is starting the process of retooling the team so that the 2023 season does not end up like all of the other Vikings seasons. Good luck there. Many of the observers in the media have already started to provide assistance, telling Adofo-Mensah what the Vikings need to do in the offseason. There will be plenty of time for that, but this is the appropriate time to see where the … [Read more...] about Misery Index: Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills Rank 1-2 On List
Index holds on to 7,000 level amid profit taking
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slipped on profit taking on Tuesday but still managed to hold the 7,000 level amid a strong wave of foreign purchases. The PSEi shed 0.45 percent, or 31.44 points, to 7,014.04 while the broader All Shares index sank 0.47 percent, or 17.23 points, to 3,657.92. A total of 1.25 billion shares valued at P10.14 billion changed hands while foreigners were net buyers to the tune of P1.75 billion, stock exchange data showed. Luis Gerardo Limlingan, head of sales at stock brokerage house Regina Capital Development, said investors also pocketed gains amid the relatively buoyant stock market in the United States. “Investors cashed in after the index touched the 7,000 level yesterday and ahead of the resumptions of trading in the US. All three of the major indexes are up coming off a positive first two weeks of trading in the new year,” he said in a note to investors on Tuesday. PSE subsectors ended mixed with property and services … [Read more...] about Index holds on to 7,000 level amid profit taking
Technical View | Nifty reclaims 18,100, fear index drops to a month’s low
The Nifty traded higher on January 23 on widespread buying and positive Asian and European cues and closed 91 points higher at 18,118, snapping a two-day losing streak. The index opened higher at 18,118 and extended the uptrend to hit the day’s high of 18,163. It reversed some of the gains in the afternoon to sink to the day’s low of 18,063 but managed to get back above 18,100 in the last hour of trade. It formed a long-legged Doji pattern on the daily charts, indicating a tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears. In the long-legged Doji, prices close at or near opening levels with long upper and lower shadows, signalling indecision. It also shows uncertainty in the market or the possibility of a reversal in market trend. The Nifty has to decisively surpass the last week's high of 18,184 for a strong momentum, where initial hurdles will be 18,200 and 18,300 and support at 18,000, experts said. The index is trading above its 50-day exponential moving average (DEMA; … [Read more...] about Technical View | Nifty reclaims 18,100, fear index drops to a month’s low
Foreign selling drags index lower
Philippine stocks struggled on Tuesday as trading activity slowed and foreigners flipped from buying to selling, dragging the benchmark index lower. The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) index retreated 0.40 percent, or 28.18 points, to 7,041.50 while the broader All Shares index sank 0.13 percent, or 4.77 points, to 3,686.48. A total of 1.96 billion shares valued at P5.4 billion changed hands while overseas investors cut their holdings by a net amount of P361.58 million, data from the stock exchange showed. Most PSE subsectors ended in the red with holding firms (-0.70 percent) taking the lead, followed by mining and oil (-0.62 percent), financials (-0.41 percent), services (-0.25 percent) and property (-0.29 percent). The industrial subindex rose 0.57 percent. Infrastructure giant Metro Pacific Investments Corp. jumped nearly 7 percent on Tuesday amid ongoing speculation the firm would take on a new investor or go private. On Thursday, the Philippine Statistics Authority … [Read more...] about Foreign selling drags index lower
S&P 500 ends at highest in month, indexes gain for week as earnings kick off
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their highest levels in a month on Friday, with shares of JPMorgan Chase and other banks rising following their quarterly results, which kicked off the earnings season. All three major indexes also registered strong gains for the week, leaving the S&P 500 up 4.2% so far in 2023, and the Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) - Wall Street's fear gauge - closed at a one-year low. On Friday, financials (.SPSY) were among sectors that gave the S&P 500 the most support. PMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) beat quarterly earnings estimates, while Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) and Citigroup Inc (C.N) fell short of quarterly profit estimates. But shares of all four firms rose, along with the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), which ended up 1.6%. JPMorgan shares climbed 2.5%. Read More Still, Wall Street's biggest banks stockpiled more rainy-day funds to prepare for a possible recession and reported weak … [Read more...] about S&P 500 ends at highest in month, indexes gain for week as earnings kick off
First revision in performance bank guarantee upon grant of coal mine opening permission: Govt
Representative image The coal ministry has decided that the first revision in Performance Bank Guarantee (PBG) would be done upon grant of mine opening permission for respective coal mines, a move that is expected to reduce financial burden on the bidders. A bank guarantee is a kind of guarantee from a lending organisation. As per the provisions of the tender document, PBG to be submitted for each successfully auctioned coal mine is to be revised annually based on the National Coal Index (NCI) for the month of April in the beginning of the year, the coal ministry said in a statement. Since NCI has become double since the launch of first commercial coal mine auctions in 2020, several representations were received from the industry for relaxation in PBG revision provisions. It was requested that unprecedented increase in NCI has led to significant financial burden on successful bidders, whose mines are in the pre-operationalisation stage, impacting fund availability for mine … [Read more...] about First revision in performance bank guarantee upon grant of coal mine opening permission: Govt
India’s IIP growth rebounds to 7.1% in November
Representative Image India's industrial growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), accelerated to 7.1 percent in November, data released on January 12 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed. IIP growth returned to positive territory in November after it had contracted by 4 percent in October - the industry's worst performance in 26 months . The figure has now been revised to show industrial output shrunk by 4.2 percent in October. The IIP in November stood at 137.1, which is higher as compared to 128 in the year-ago period. In October 2022, an IIP of 129.3 was clocked. Also Read | CPI inflation falls again in December, hits 1-year low of 5.72% At 7.1 percent, the November IIP growth number is above with the consenus estimate of 3.2 percent , as per a Moneycontrol poll. It also the highest IIP growth clocked in the last five months. Electricity sector recorded the highest production in November, with a growth of 12.7 … [Read more...] about India’s IIP growth rebounds to 7.1% in November
Inflation Melts: The Evidence And Implications
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin The CPI for December was released on January 12 th (-0.1% M/M; +6.5% Y/Y). As it turns out, inflation was transitory after all – the time frame was 18 months. Supply chains are back to normal, and we see evidence of falling prices everywhere we look. The ISM survey of prices paid in the manufacturing sector (39.4 December vs. 43.0 November) is approaching the lows reached during the Covid lockdowns in April 2020, and they are significantly below the pre-Covid years shown on the chart above. Clearly deflationary. In the December CPI print (-0.1%), shelter costs (mainly rents), which account for approximately 30% of the CPI, rose +0.8%. We know that the BLS uses antiquated methods when measuring rents, and we know that in real time, rents have been falling. BLS’s rent data are about nine months behind reality as seen from the tight fit of the CPI Rent Index to the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index advanced nine months (see … [Read more...] about Inflation Melts: The Evidence And Implications