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The S&P 500 is down about 3.7% year-to-date as of market open on Dec. 17, 2018. Market analysts have begun to very vocally sound the alarm about the possibility of a bear market — but if you listen close enough, you'll also hear whispers about a looming recession. There are certainly ways that investors can protect themselves against potential losses in the event of a market downturn. Still, market capitulation , or the phenomenon in which investors give up earlier gains when they sell off their positions out of panic, remains a real possibility. To make matters worse, it could be some of the biggest players in the financial world — hedge funds — who end up leading the trend. Where Do Hedge Funds Piece Into a Market Sell-Off? Hedge funds could contribute to a prolonged stock sell-off into the future. According to a recent report by Bloomberg , Sundial Capital Research found that hedge funds as a group bought heavily into American equities, and moreover that many of … [Read more...] about Why Hedge Funds May Still Have More to Contribute to a Stock Sell-Off

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Over the last year a number of you have pointed out the odd typo or two in my Sunday note. For example, one eagle eyed reader in Brazil registered that I had written ‘South China Sean’ rather than ‘South China Sea’, which is a Freudian slip of sorts. The real reason the quality of the note may have slipped is that this time last year my ‘editor’ Nicholas Benachi, passed away. In addition to being a good friend, he made sure that the logic and quality of the note were up to scratch. One of his favourite greetings and ‘sign-offs’ was ‘Strength and Honour’, which may have been inspired by his love of bushido and his family’s ties to Greece, not to mention a sweeping appreciation of history. It is a phrase that comes to mind more and more often in a world where the moral pendulum is swinging wildly, and I often find myself using it as a maxim to scrutinise people, places and projects. Here are a few examples. Strength … [Read more...] about What Makes Economies Strong?

The financial news portal named by ChatGPT provides financial news, analysis, and information on stocks, mutual funds, and other financial instruments. (Image Courtesy: NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES) OpenAI's generative bot, ChatGPT, reached 100 million users in January, according to reports from Reuters. What makes this interesting is that the bot was only opened to the public in November last year, but it is already on track to acquire 100 million active users in just two months. Within the first month of availability, ChatGPT accumulated 57 million active users, and by January, it is now being visited by almost 13 million users daily. Also Read | MC Explains: Everything you need to know about Midjourney AI This makes it one of the fastest growing online platforms. In comparison, it took TikTok nine months to acquire 100 million users, and as Engadget points out, it took Meta's Instagram two-and-a-half years to reach that number. Read More Since … [Read more...] about ChatGPT hits 100 million users in January: Report

ILLUSTRATION BY ALBERT RODRIGUEZ It’s been six months since President Marcos was sworn into office. If we liken Mr. Marcos’ six-year term to the well-loved game of basketball, we are now in the second half of the first of six games. The first half of Game 1 was filled with many challenges. A Pulse Asia survey last September 2022 showed that the top concerns of Filipinos are controlling inflation, increasing the pay of workers and creating more jobs. Unfortunately, these continue to burden Filipinos into halftime of Game 1. Before the first “game” ends on June 30, 2023, we’d like to share some of the administration’s notable wins during its first six months and some reflections on how to sustain the fight against these challenges. Wins First among Mr. Marcos’ wins is the appointment of credible and experienced economic managers. This means that we have a strong team to overcome the pandemic’s lingering effects on the economy. Second, several executive actions were made … [Read more...] about Reflections on Marcos’ 1st 6 months

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin The big spike in the Payroll data (+517K) was out of kilter with what has been occurring in the rest of the economy and in other labor market data. Financial markets always shoot first and ask questions later, so, on Friday, equity markets fell and bond yields rose on the fear that the Fed would now have a great excuse to raise interest rates even further than what was already priced in. The far-right hand sides of the above charts show the violent up spikes in the yields of the 10-Yr. and 2-Yr. T-Notes on Friday (February 3). As reported by various reliable sources with deep research capabilities, most or all of the +517K job gains wasn’t due to new job creation, but to benchmark revisions, seasonal adjustments, and population controls , all keywords for what we can only describe as statistical magic . Morgan Stanley MS concluded that without the population adjustments, the Household Survey (which was up an even … [Read more...] about Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Billionaire Mark Cuban says President Trump is wrong to the think the economy can open up as early as May 1. And when it does open, it will take years to return to post-pandemic norms. “I wish he was right, but he’s not,” Cuban said in an interview on Sunday with Chris Wallace of FOX News Sunday. “People aren’t going to just venture outside. They're not going to go to large gatherings. They're not going to feel confident right off the bat. There’s going to be a lot of trepidation. And that concern is going to lead to people holding back on spending money,” he says. Some people are appalled by the rising stock market as unemployment explodes — over 16 million people have filed for unemployment in just 15 business days due to mandated government shutdowns of business. Retail, restaurants, travel, sports and entertainment have been particularly hard hit. “It speaks of a vast transfer of wealth orchestrated by the … [Read more...] about Mark Cuban Says Economy Will Never Be The Same Post-Pandemic

Under NPS, employees have to make regular investments. Amid some states moving to old pension scheme, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman cautioned against the move, saying that states might be paying the current generation of pensioners by loading it onto the future generations. The minister was speaking to Rahul Joshi, Group Editor, Network18 Group in an exclusive interview. Recently, the Punjab government said it was considering reverting to the old pension scheme, or OPS, for its employees. If the proposal goes through, Punjab will be the third state to have reverted to the OPS after Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Even Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis recently said that the state was “not negative” about OPS. “We should look at a reasonable balance and what we are leaving for generations to come. Yes, you need to borrow for the economy to run, but unless we have a complete understanding of the fiscal health of the state, for not just today but future … [Read more...] about FM Nirmala Sitharaman Interview: Moving to old pension scheme is unwise

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline: As the coronavirus continues to roil stock markets and leads to widespread business shutdowns across the country, a growing number of top banks on Wall Street have been issuing increasingly dire forecasts on the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic, with many saying that a recession will hit in 2020—if it hasn’t already done so. Goldman Sachs economists on Friday forecast an unprecedented 24% hit to U.S. second-quarter GDP, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, due to coronavirus; the bank also expects unemployment to surge to 9% and full-year GDP for 2020 to fall 3.8% on an annual average basis. Bank of America warned late on Thursday that a recession due to the coronavirus pandemic is already here: “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed,” the bank’s U.S. economist, Michelle Meyer, wrote in a note, as the Bank of America also forecast the economy to … [Read more...] about Just How Bad Is It? Here’s The Economic Damage The Coronavirus Will Cause, According To Major Banks

Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin May 2, 2022 4:41pm ET: Story updated. Last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sought public comment on a request from FTX US to modify its derivatives clearing organization (DCO) license to offer a new kind of crypto margin trading to U.S. retail customers. FTX US is requesting the ability to use a new kind of ‘non-intermediated’ model of crypto derivatives trading, meaning there is no intermediary used to hold customer’s funds. As crypto exchanges typically take collateral from the customer directly, the FTX US model would directly custody the margin from retail customers and liquidate positions held by the exchange on a 24-7-365 basis. Under the FTX US model, the customer’s positions will be reviewed for potential margin calls every 30 seconds. Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX, recently described this model to Congress as, “...a 24/7 risk engine that is unlike the traditional system where there … [Read more...] about The FTX US Proposal That Shook Congress And The Crypto Derivatives World