LONDON - Trade and investment restrictions are proliferating around the world, driven by a combination of security concerns and protectionist pressures. In each instance, policymakers can usually cite a justification of why trade and investment restrictions are necessary. But taken together, a thickening web of restrictions on cross-border transactions is imposing a growing burden on business as well as complicating supply chains. The United States and China have threatened to hit each other with tariffs covering up to $300 billion of bilateral trade in a dispute over intellectual property and technology transfers. The United States has already imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of steel, aluminium and solar panels from China, citing concerns about unfair trade. China has responded with its own anti-dumping duties on imported sorghum from the United States and is investigating other products. US officials have raised security concerns about telecommunications … [Read more...] about World economy at risk from trade, investment restrictions: opinion
Economy
Morgan Stanley remains bearish on the Australian economy, at least in the short term
Morgan Stanley remains bearish on the Australian economy in the short-term, predicting GDP growth will slow to 2% in 2018. It expects falling house prices, soft wage growth and tighter credit conditions to limit household spending, leading to the RBA keeping interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The bank is forecasting that the Australian dollar will fall to 71 cents by the end of 2018, a factor that will help to support the economy in 2019. When it comes to mainstream economic forecasters, few are as bearish on Australia than Morgan Stanley. At least in the short term. Rather than expecting an acceleration in the Australian economic growth this year, something that most forecasters, including the RBA, expect, it thinks growth will slow, dragged down by falling house prices, soft wage growth and tighter credit conditions. It’s a scenario, the analysts say, that will weigh on household spending. “We don’t think any of the fundamental drivers of our … [Read more...] about Morgan Stanley remains bearish on the Australian economy, at least in the short term
The IMF says Australia’s economy will grow 3% this year and keep rising
The IMF forecasts GDP in Australia at 3.1% next year, well above recent estimates. Global growth is on track to reach 3.9% this year and next. However, the first shots in a potential trade war have been fired. Australia’s economy is heading upwards as long the rise isn’t interrupted by a global trade war. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecasts for economic growth in Australia to 3% this year, a sharp rise from 2.3% in 2017, and up from the 2.9% rate predicted in February. The numbers are in line with the federal government’s mid year budget update with GDP forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2017-18 and 3% in 2018-19 after growth of 2% in 2016-17. And next year Australia’s GPD will rise again to 3.1%, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook. And the consumer price index is expected to jump to 2.2% from around 2%, and then to 2.4% in 2019. Inflation is currently running at 1.9%. Here are the numbers for Australia and the … [Read more...] about The IMF says Australia’s economy will grow 3% this year and keep rising
Trade spat to dull expected tax cut boost to U.S. economy: Reuters…
BENGALURU (Reuters) - The ongoing trade spat between the world’s two largest economies will restrain the roaring U.S. economy, dulling an expected boost to growth from massive tax cuts passed through Congress just a few months ago, a Reuters poll found. FILE PHOTO: Shipping containers being loaded onto Xin Da Yang Zhou ship from Shanghai, China at Pier J at the Port of Long Beach in Long Beach, California, U.S., April 4, 2018. REUTERS/Bob Riha Jr./File Photo The latest expectations from a poll of over 100 economists taken April 9-17 suggest the White House’s hopes for sustained economic growth above 3 percent will not be realized, which in turn may spawn future expectations for even bigger budget deficits over the coming years. The Reuters poll consensus has growth averaging 2.8 percent this year, slowing to 2.4 percent next. U.S. President Donald Trump’s most recent push to impose duties on imports from China have triggered fears of a global trade war and … [Read more...] about Trade spat to dull expected tax cut boost to U.S. economy: Reuters…
IMF says a major trade rift could imperil global economy
By Paul Wiseman Published 4:16 pm, Tuesday, April 17, 2018 WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that rising trade tensions between the United States and China risk undermining a global economy that the IMF believes should otherwise grow solidly this year. The lending agency has kept its forecast for worldwide growth this year at 3.9 percent, which would be its fastest pace since 2011. But the IMF’s chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld, told reporters that this bright outlook could be derailed by a major trade conflict. Obstfeld said at a news conference that the IMF had run economic simulations about the impact of a far-reaching trade war that would include across-the-board tariffs of 10 percent. The computer simulations, he said, showed a “fairly substantial” impact from such tariffs. Global financial markets would likely also be hurt by threats of tariffs, Obstfeld said. Investors have already endured stomach-churning swings … [Read more...] about IMF says a major trade rift could imperil global economy