This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A IF Bank Negara Malaysia’s eight-member monetary policy committee (MPC) raises the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) at its next scheduled meeting on July 6, it will mark its first back-to-back increase since mid-2010, when interest rates were normalised following the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. It will not be the first central bank to do so. Compared with just a month ago, more economists now (at the time of writing) reckon that a 25bps hike will happen in July, but many still think a pause is possible in July ahead of the Hari Raya Aidiladha celebrations. In any case, at least one more rate increase (if not two) is expected to take place by the conclusion of the Sept 8 meeting to bring the OPR to at least 2.25% (if not 2.5%), consensus data show. “Our house has also shifted expectations for Bank Negara to frontload … [Read more...] about The State Of The Nation: What the Fed’s 75bps hike and near 4% terminal rate mean for the OPR
Decline in fertility rates
S&P revised Malaysia’s rating outlook to stable from negative on strong growth momentum, external position
- A + A KUALA LUMPUR (June 27): S&P Global Ratings has revised upward its rating outlook on Malaysia’s long term sovereign credit ratings to stable from negative, reflecting its expectation that the country’s steady growth momentum and strong external position will remain in place for the next two years. At the same time, it anticipates that the policymaking environment will be supportive of restoring fiscal settings to a firmer footing. “We revised the outlook to stable in recognition of Malaysia's consistently strong growth trend that is faster than sovereigns of similar income level. Though Malaysia's budget deficits remain high, we expect its growth dynamics to offset vulnerabilities associated with its weak fiscal settings. In addition, political commitment to resume fiscal consolidation post-pandemic is strong, in our view," S&P said in a statement on Monday (June 27). At the same time, it affirmed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term foreign … [Read more...] about S&P revised Malaysia’s rating outlook to stable from negative on strong growth momentum, external position
ECB’s pivot towards rate hikes feeds fears of new bond crisis
- A + A FRANKFURT (June 27): European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis. As president Christine Lagarde and colleagues meet in the resort of Sintra for their version of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Jackson Hole conference, they face competing tasks: cool the fastest consumer-price growth in the euro's history without delivering an economic downturn or sparking a 2012-style spike in borrowing costs in Italy, the region's third-largest economy, and other vulnerable states. Markets are already sounding an alert on what may lie ahead. Italian government bond yields jumped past 4% this month for the first time since 2014 as investors took fright at the ECB's plan to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade. With that hike locked in, and another … [Read more...] about ECB’s pivot towards rate hikes feeds fears of new bond crisis
Making sense of CTOS’ venture into RAM
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A LAST week, CTOS Digital Bhd made a bold move to raise its stake in RAM Holdings Bhd (RAM), in which it already owns a 19.225% stake. This is the third acquisition that CTOS has undertaken within a year. CTOS, which bought into RAM shortly after it was listed in July last year, launched a general offer last week to buy out the remaining shares that it does not own in the credit rating agency (CRA) soon after it got the green light from the Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) to own more than 51%. CTOS has so far spent the bulk of the RM173.8 million raised from a private placement in March on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). RAM will be the first local CRA to have a controlling shareholder upon the completion of the takeover offer. Dollars and cents aside, the takeover bid has prompted some quarters to question whether the independence of RAM’s rating … [Read more...] about Making sense of CTOS’ venture into RAM
Hong Kong exports post surprise fall on China curbs, global woes
- A + A (June 27): Hong Kong’s exports surprisingly declined in May as trade with China continued to face disruptions from Covid and other global headwinds stalled momentum. Overall exports slid 1.4% last month from a year earlier, reversing April’s 1.1% gain, the Census and Statistics Department said Monday. Economists had expected an improvement of 4.3%. Imports rose 1.3% in May from a year earlier, also worse than economists’ forecast of a 4.8% expansion. The trade deficit was HK$36.7 billion (US$4.7 billion), worse than estimates and the fourth straight month the city has recorded a deficit. May’s decline in exports comes after an unexpected uptick improvement in April, when exports to China were still falling but not as severely as in March. This time around, trade with China fell 10.1%, worse than April’s 9.4% drop, the statistics bureau said. The decline in the value of exports was attributed to “increasing headwinds” faced by the global economy, the … [Read more...] about Hong Kong exports post surprise fall on China curbs, global woes
The State of the Nation: Hospitality industry struggling to cope despite borders reopening, brighter prospects
This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A DESPITE the reopening of borders since April 1, when Malaysia allowed quarantine-free travel for fully-vaccinated travellers into the country, it will be some time before the hotel industry regains a strong footing following the debilitating lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. In fact, it may well take another year at least before operators can operate at their full capacities at pre-pandemic levels, Malaysian Association of Hotel Owners (MAHO) president Tan Sri Teo Chiang Hong tells The Edge. “Average occupancy rates are an estimated 30% to 50% of pre-pandemic levels,” says Teo, who is owner and director of One World Hotel in Petaling Jaya, Selangor. He notes that resort destinations are seeing full occupancies while city hotels still face low occupancy. As at November 2020, a total of 204 tourism and hotel operators had shut down following the impact of the … [Read more...] about The State of the Nation: Hospitality industry struggling to cope despite borders reopening, brighter prospects
Thailand News Today | Police arrested for bribery over Chinese adult films
Thai health officials are expected to gather more data in coming weeks as the highly transmissible BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron spread in Thailand. There is a new wave of the two Omicron sub-variant infections hitting a number of countries that had, until recently, seen a large drop in their Covid case loads. Germany, Italy, Australia, Taiwan, Brazil, UK, Mexico, the US states of Florida, Texas and New York, Chile and Greece are some of the countries which have seen sudden spikes and rises in hospital admissions. South Africa and Portugal both had sudden spikes of the new sub-variant area and are now in the decline phase. The UK, for example, is now going through what it describes as its third major wave of infections over the past 6 months. An estimated 1.7 million people in the UK were infected in the 7 days leading up to June 18, a 23% rise on the week before and a 43% jump from the previous week. With people out and about for the region’s summer, medical … [Read more...] about Thailand News Today | Police arrested for bribery over Chinese adult films