Secondly, there wasn’t a lot of creativity in approaches to evaluating risk. There was the Gaussian copula model that had become the dominant way of measuring and analyzing risk. That may or may not work. The chances of it being wrong are so high, and the dangers if it’s wrong are so incredibly high. A system that has a lot more diversity would allow us to mitigate some of that risk socially. It would also allow people to find credit rating that reflected their own biases and objectives. … [Read more...] about FreeRisk: Crowdsourcing Credit Ratings?
Days stock market is closed
WarnerMedia, in contrast, has moved more laboriously, fumbling the rollout of HBO Max in May and sending out mixed signals: Tenet was a kiss to movie theaters and talent (Christopher Nolan). Wonder Woman was one to HBO Max. The result has been a very dismal stock situation for AT&T, which owns WarnerMedia—something that was surely not lost on executives at the company when they drafted the release for their new movie strategy. No one knows better than Disney (and AT&T) what happens when you tell Wall Street that you’re all about streaming! Disney’s stock is up almost double in 2020 and is currently trading at about its 52-week high, with a market cap of more than $275 billion. Meanwhile, AT&T’s stock is down about 25% in 2020, with its market cap currently about $208 billion. … [Read more...] about How WarnerMedia just killed the Hollywood way of doing business
Harry & David Harry & David’s Gourmet Turkey Dinner arrives fully cooked and ready to warm. The box features a 10-pound oven-roasted turkey, apple sausage stuffing, brussels sprouts, brown sugar sweet potatoes, and, naturally, a pumpkin cheesecake. For those just looking to supplement their sides, the company is offering a 10-pound hickory-smoked turkey, lobster pot pie, and a mushroom-and-bacon-stuffed chateaubriand. … [Read more...] about The best Thanksgiving treats you can get delivered to loved ones (or yourself)
And [doing that is] insanely expensive. I mean, since starting the organization, we’ve raised close to $100 million and spent nearly every dollar of it. That’s not sustainable. I also think creating organizational networks that enable people to share trusted news and information with the people in their life is an untapped resource and solution for the disinformation epidemic. What I mean by that is pairing trusted news and information with relational organizing. The majority of Americans trust the people in their lives more than any other source of information. And so if we can arm people who are already media literate—regardless of what your ideology or your politics are—to understand the value and impact of sharing and informing the people in their lives with trusted information, that would also be amazing. … [Read more...] about The Democratic operative who beat Trump on Facebook is bracing for the war ahead
To determine when it makes sense to wait and let the other side make the first offer, we need to take stock of how much information we don’t have. Consider this: Thomas Edison had a new invention that he thought would improve the telegraph machine. So he took his ideas to the Western Union Telegraph Company. When Western Union asked him to name his price, his initial instinct was to shoot for the moon and ask for $2,000. But for some reason he stopped himself and said instead, “How about you make me an offer.” Western Union opened with $40,000! That was at least 20 times what he was going to ask (and is the equivalent of nearly $1 million in today’s currency). He used this unexpected windfall to build a laboratory where he later created the phonograph and the electric light bulb. … [Read more...] about When To Make The First Offer In A Negotiation, According To Science