Jayanth Varma, one of the three external members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has said the rate-setting panel's members should start taking the first steps to providing interest rates projections by initially giving their individual views on where they see the policy rate in the near-term. "I believe it is possible to start with baby steps and proceed gradually towards the desired goal," Varma told Moneycontrol via e-mail. "It is possible to start with projections only for the next quarter and slowly expand the horizon. It is possible to begin with broad ranges for the policy rate and then progressively refine the range. These are all matters of implementation detail. The important thing is to have a consensus on whether this is worth doing." Varma's comments come after he was cited as saying in the minutes of the June 6-8 meeting, released on June 22, that the time was "ripe" for the committee's members to start moving towards providing … [Read more...] about MPC members can start with near-term interest rate forecasts, says Jayanth Varma
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Debunking 6 Inflation Myths
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin If you’ve pumped gas, bought groceries, traveled or dined out in recent months, you don’t need me to tell you that inflation is having a significant impact on your purchasing power. While many of today’s workers have never seen inflation this high during their lifetimes, most people in or nearing retirement age remember it well. In fact, I was just beginning my career as a wealth advisor the last time we experienced rates this high. Yet, the current rate of 8.3% pales in comparison to the rates we saw in the late 1970s and early 1980s. By 1980, inflation had topped 14%, and unemployment was over 7.5%, based on historical data from the Federal Reserve (Fed). While most economists do not expect broad inflation measures to reach double-digits, the current environment has been challenging for many individuals and families trying to find creative ways to make their budgets stretch further. Because the forces behind inflation are … [Read more...] about Debunking 6 Inflation Myths
RBI well on track to bringing down inflation, says Governor Shaktikanta Das
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das (File image) The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is “well on track” to bringing down inflation and inflation expectations in the economy against the backdrop of supply side disruptions, the governor said. “Until December, CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation is expected to remain higher than the upper tolerance level; thereafter it is expected to go below 6 percent as per our current projections,” Shaktikanta Das said in an interview to The Times of India. "There will be inflationary pressures, and only in the fourth quarter, we have projected it to go below 6 percent.” The governor acknowledged that high inflation hurts people the most, especially the lower segment of society which is hit the hardest. Hence, it is desirable that the country has a framework for inflation and that monetary policy operates within that, Das said. The RBI’s analysis shows that when consumer inflation exceeds 6 percent, it is negative for growth, he said, adding … [Read more...] about RBI well on track to bringing down inflation, says Governor Shaktikanta Das
Dow Jumps 800 Points, Stocks Snap Three-Week Losing Streak After Inflation Expectations Ease
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline The stock market rebounded strongly on Friday, posting its first positive week this month as recession fears subsided somewhat thanks to positive economic data suggesting that inflation may have peaked, while some experts expressed optimism about the health of the economy. Key Facts Stocks snapped a three-week losing streak on Friday: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.7%, over 800 points, while the S&P 500 jumped 3.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 3.3%. Markets got a boost after the latest consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan showed that inflation expectations eased slightly in June, rising 5.3% compared to a year ago—but lower than the 5.4% expected. Investors also cheered optimistic remarks about the economy from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who said that recession fears are “overblown” and consumer spending remains strong. Stocks … [Read more...] about Dow Jumps 800 Points, Stocks Snap Three-Week Losing Streak After Inflation Expectations Ease
RBI committed to bringing inflation within target, MPC meeting minutes show
“The time is appropriate to go for a further increase in the policy rate to effectively deal with inflation and inflation expectations,” RBI governor Shakitkanta Das, who heads the six-member panel, said. "As our policy in recent months has been unambiguously focussed on withdrawal of accommodation, both in terms of liquidity and rates, the change in the wording of stance should be seen as a continuation and fine-tuning of our recent approach," Das added. "The withdrawal of accommodation, as I see it, would be non-disruptive to the process of recovery and would strengthen our ongoing efforts to combat inflation and anchor inflation expectations." The MPC raised the repo rate by 50 basis points on June 8 , almost a month after it had gone for 40 basis point hike in an off-cycle policy meeting to combat rising price pressure. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Retail inflation came in at 7.04 percent in May , easing from a near-eight-year high of 7.79 … [Read more...] about RBI committed to bringing inflation within target, MPC meeting minutes show
Powell Says Fed Will Continue Hiking Rates Until There Is ‘Compelling Evidence’ That Inflation Is Slowing
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pledged in testimony before Congress on Wednesday that the central bank is “moving expeditiously” to raise interest rates and remains “strongly committed” to doing so until there is “compelling evidence” that inflation is normalizing. Key Facts In his semiannual testimony on monetary policy to Congress, Powell faced questions from lawmakers about how the central bank will proceed as it looks to combat surging inflation, which remains at 41-year highs. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points last week—its largest increase since 1994, with Powell also signaling that a similarly large rate hike is likely at the next policy meeting in July. Speaking to Congress on Wednesday, Powell pledged that the Fed wouldn’t hesitate to keep raising rates at a fast clip—and further than projected—if higher inflation continues to persist. “It is essential that we bring … [Read more...] about Powell Says Fed Will Continue Hiking Rates Until There Is ‘Compelling Evidence’ That Inflation Is Slowing
Inflation Goes Global: It’s Not Just Rising In The U.S.—But Europe, South Korea And More
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Inflation in the U.S. hit a 40-year high in May when consumer prices rose 8.6% in the 12 months ending in May—but the country is not the only one to see rising costs: A host of European nations, as well as Israel and South Korea, have also witnessed huge surges in inflation since the start of the pandemic. Key Facts Inflation spiked in Europe in May—and in particular, in Germany, France, Spain and Italy—reaching a record high of 8.1%, up from 7.4% the previous month, caused by rising energy and food costs sparked by the war in Ukraine. South Korea’s inflation hit a 13-year high in April, rising 4.8% from a year before, and Korea’s central bank said this week inflation this year would exceed a 4.5% annual forecast the bank estimated last month, citing the war in Ukraine, rising commodity prices, supply chain issues and loosening of Covid restrictions (driving up consumer demand) as factors. … [Read more...] about Inflation Goes Global: It’s Not Just Rising In The U.S.—But Europe, South Korea And More
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | No quick fix for inflation
Representative image Dear Reader , The Panorama newsletter is sent to Moneycontrol Pro subscribers on market days. It offers easy access to stories published on Moneycontrol Pro and gives a little extra by setting out a context or an event or trend that investors should keep track of. Inflation is the topic of the moment, not just for central bankers, but also for households, markets, governments and corporates. In fact, companies have been taking innovative steps to tackle it. For India, inflation traditionally has a lot to do with energy prices, though food prices have also played their part. This time around too, fuel-led inflation has impacted the country, but at the same time high fuel prices and commodity prices along with logistic issues on account of the Russia-Ukraine war have resulted in fertiliser prices shooting up. The government has tried to absorb the impact of higher fertiliser costs by extending subsidies. Fertiliser subsidy during the year is … [Read more...] about Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | No quick fix for inflation
Stocks Fall After Powell Pledges More Big Rate Hikes To Combat Inflation
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Topline Stocks fell slightly on Wednesday as a growing number of major Wall Street firms warned that the likelihood of a recession has risen sharply, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pledged that the central bank is “ strongly committed ” to raising rates until inflation moderates. Key Facts Markets finished lower in choppy trading: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, less than 100 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 0.2%. The Dow was down by as much as 400 points but stocks pared back losses following comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said the central bank is “determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability” and that “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.” Citigroup became the latest Wall Street bank to increase its recession odds, meanwhile, forecasting a 50% chance of a downturn as consumer demand “looks to be … [Read more...] about Stocks Fall After Powell Pledges More Big Rate Hikes To Combat Inflation
Fight inflation, not prices
Having the retail price of rice at P20 per kilo sounds nice in a speech, but is so far away from the market price to be feasible in six, or even 12, years, that it is doomed to failure. Making oneself personally responsible for the failure by becoming the secretary of agriculture seems like taking the advice of one’s enemies. Rice has grown more expensive in terms of money just like everything else, due to general inflation, which gradually lowers the value of money. The inflation that matters is the general increase in the cost of living for consumers. This general inflation rate is the strongest correlate—stronger than agricultural productivity—with poverty and hunger. It averages the increases in prices of very many consumer goods, not just rice. For any single item, such as rice, the market price is determined by supply and demand. For the government to interfere with the market is too costly. To return to the monopolization of rice imports by the National Food Authority—the … [Read more...] about Fight inflation, not prices