Corporate bond yield curve

- A + A FRANKFURT (June 27): European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers gather on a Portuguese hillside on Monday with the sinking feeling that their rush to tackle the inflation shock they failed to forecast risks both a recession and echoes of the euro area's sovereign debt crisis. As president Christine Lagarde and colleagues meet in the resort of Sintra for their version of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Jackson Hole conference, they face competing tasks: cool the fastest consumer-price growth in the euro's history without delivering an economic downturn or sparking a 2012-style spike in borrowing costs in Italy, the region's third-largest economy, and other vulnerable states. Markets are already sounding an alert on what may lie ahead. Italian government bond yields jumped past 4% this month for the first time since 2014 as investors took fright at the ECB's plan to raise interest rates in July for the first time in a decade. With that hike locked in, and another … [Read more...] about ECB’s pivot towards rate hikes feeds fears of new bond crisis

- A + A MUMBAI/MANILA (June 27): Signs of distress flashing in bond markets suggest the world's poorest nations are set to see a wave of debt restructurings. But a growing cohort of investors say that is a buying opportunity. Panic selling in the aftermath of Sri Lanka's economic collapse has sent the average yield in junk-rated emerging economies to almost 900 basis points above US Treasuries, the highest risk premium in 13 years except for the Covid-19-related rout in 2020, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co data. Yet, initial fears about a widespread default Armageddon across emerging markets is easing, and money managers are looking beyond the handful of countries that may reschedule their debt. This shift in perception means at least some smaller developing nations, called frontier markets, have been unduly punished in the recent sell-off and now offer highly attractive yields. Even in the event of debt restructuring, their bonds will offer greater recovery … [Read more...] about Frontier-debt buyers look past default risk in hunger for yield

- A + A NEW YORK (June 28): U.S. stocks ended a volatile trading session slightly lower on Monday after posting sharp gains the week before, while oil prices and Treasury yields rose. Oil climbed following last week's rout, as the Group of Seven nations promised to tighten the squeeze on Russia's finances with new sanctions that include a plan to cap the price of Russian oil. Investors have been hoping oil's slide from three-month peaks hit earlier in June could ease overall inflation concerns and allow the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten policy less aggressively than initially feared. Still, data on Monday showed new orders for U.S.-made capital goods and shipments increased solidly in May, pointing to sustained strength in business spending on equipment in the second quarter. Stocks moved between gains and losses during the session on Wall Street, with big growth shares leading the way down. "It's not shocking given we're in a bear market that last week was a … [Read more...] about U.S. stocks fall after recent big gains; oil, yields rise

Borrowing costs of Indian states are likely to rise in the coming weeks as the Reserve Bank of India ’s (RBI) rate hike cycle becomes more entrenched and the supply of state papers rises, money market experts and bankers told Moneycontrol on June 27. A majority of those expect the yield on the 10-year state development loan (SDL) to rise above 8 percent in the coming weeks. “In the first quarter of this fiscal year, supply of debt was limited. But in the second half of this fiscal year, we expect state debt supply to rise and that should put upward pressure on (state) bond yields,” said Ritesh Bhusari, deputy general manager, treasury, at South Indian Bank. To put in perspective, the cut-off yield for 10-year SDL ranged from 7.83 percent to 7.86 percent at an auction on June 21, according to data from the RBI. Prior to that, at an auction on June 14, Tamil Nadu’s 10-year paper was sold at a cut-off yield of 7.94 percent, while Haryana’s 10-year bond was sold at 7.95 percent. … [Read more...] about States’ borrowing cost set to rise on higher debt supply, RBI’s rate cues, experts say

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A IF Bank Negara Malaysia’s eight-member monetary policy committee (MPC) raises the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) at its next scheduled meeting on July 6, it will mark its first back-to-back increase since mid-2010, when interest rates were normalised following the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. It will not be the first central bank to do so. Compared with just a month ago, more economists now (at the time of writing) reckon that a 25bps hike will happen in July, but many still think a pause is possible in July ahead of the Hari Raya Aidiladha celebrations. In any case, at least one more rate increase (if not two) is expected to take place by the conclusion of the Sept 8 meeting to bring the OPR to at least 2.25% (if not 2.5%), consensus data show. “Our house has also shifted expectations for Bank Negara to frontload … [Read more...] about The State Of The Nation: What the Fed’s 75bps hike and near 4% terminal rate mean for the OPR

Trade Watchlist Portfolio Message Set Alert live bse live nse live Volume Todays L/H More × State Bank of India (SBI) is likely to report strong performance for the quarter ended March 2022 when it will declare its results on May 11. Experts expect India’s largest banker to report a robust on-year growth of 50 percent for the quarter and expect its net interest income (NII) to increase 16 percent over the same period last year. According to a poll of four brokerages conducted by Moneycontrol , SBI is likely to post a net profit of Rs 10,075 crore for the quarter ended March 2022 on a NII of Rs 31,360 crore. The bank had registered a PAT of Rs 6,451 crore during the corresponding period last year with NII coming in at Rs 27,067 crore. The profit during the October – December period stood at Rs 8,432 crore when the bank had registered a NII of Rs 30,687 crore. Close … [Read more...] about State Bank of India Q4 Results Preview | Profit may surge 50% on healthy loan growth, asset quality

Reserve Bank of India The central bank is fighting twin battles at this point. It needs to control inflation that is way above its mid-term target of 4 percent and has been consistently above the upper band of 6 percent. On the other hand, the nascent recovery seen on the economic growth, needs to be supported. The central bank-led monetary policy committee (MPC) clearly misjudged the inflation trajectory for a prolonged period in its bid to support growth recovery. The stance remained accommodative for a long time which led to differences even within the panel. In May, the rate-setting panel then embarked on a catch-up game by initiating sharp rate hikes in two rounds, totaling 90 basis points (bps). One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. The MPC has signalled to take the rate back to pre-pandemic levels. The repo rate, which is currently at 4.9 percent, can go up by at least 100 basis points, according to economists considering the inflation … [Read more...] about Banking Central| Where will the repo rate settle ultimately?

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on June 20, 2022 - June 26, 2022. - A + A LAST week, CTOS Digital Bhd made a bold move to raise its stake in RAM Holdings Bhd (RAM), in which it already owns a 19.225% stake. This is the third acquisition that CTOS has undertaken within a year. CTOS, which bought into RAM shortly after it was listed in July last year, launched a general offer last week to buy out the remaining shares that it does not own in the credit rating agency (CRA) soon after it got the green light from the Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) to own more than 51%. CTOS has so far spent the bulk of the RM173.8 million raised from a private placement in March on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). RAM will be the first local CRA to have a controlling shareholder upon the completion of the takeover offer. Dollars and cents aside, the takeover bid has prompted some quarters to question whether the independence of RAM’s rating … [Read more...] about Making sense of CTOS’ venture into RAM

"It will be early to assume that the full impact of headwinds (that confront the global and Indian economy currently) are priced in," says Dhananjay Sinha, Managing Director and Head Strategist and Economist - Equity Research at JM Financial Institutional Securities. Gauging the markets using this monitor, JM Financial sees that 30-35 percent of the characteristics of past capitulation are visible as of now, leaving further scope for adjustments. Hence they expect commodity prices to correct further and crude would be the last to collapse, giving rise to a scenario of market capitulation. Thus, the markets may still be afar from a deep value situation, Sinha shares in an interview with Moneycontrol . Excerpts from the interview: Do you think the market fully priced in all these risk factors? Do you see any other risk that the market hasn't factored in yet? While it is true that the market now knows the various risks that confront the global and Indian economy, it will … [Read more...] about Daily Voice | More correction likely as these four risk factors not priced in yet, says Dhananjay Sinha of JM Financial