NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gridlock, Blue Sweep or Red Repeat? Wall Street is closely watching the U.S. midterm Congressional elections next week, as policy decisions that could sway the economy, corporate decision-making and consumer spending hinge on the results. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., October 30, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Should his fellow Republicans maintain or extend their grip on Congress, President Donald Trump may be emboldened to pursue more of his political agenda, including further tax reforms. By contrast, Democratic gains that allow the party to control the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, could stifle Trump’s policy aims and perhaps lead to attempts to impeach him. Investors are bracing for a split Congress, in which Democrats win the House but Republicans hold the Senate, a reflection of current polling data and online betting markets. Sentiment could change though in the last … [Read more...] about How the U.S. midterm elections could ripple through markets
Betting markets trump impeachment
By Ksenia Galouchko Bloomberg Thu., Sept. 6, 2018 LONDON—U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the stock market would plummet if he were impeached. Barclays Plc disagrees. “We doubt that capital markets would collapse if President Trump’s administration was endangered, either electorally or indeed legally,” William Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Investment Solutions in London, said in a blog post. “The forward momentum of the world economy, and therefore its capital markets, has little to do with the actions of the White House, past, present or future, in our opinion.” Back in February, Barclays pointed out that the “Trump rally” in U.S. equities primarily has its roots in the period before the 2016 presidential election, and is based on economic factors, such as oil’s recovery and looser policy in China. The U.S. stock market is in the middle of the longest bull market ever and traders have … [Read more...] about Barclays doesn’t foresee market collapse if Trump faces impeachment
The interview followed last week's conviction of Paul Manafort, Trump's one-time campaign manager, and the guilty plea of Michael Cohen, the president's former personal lawyer. We asked three economists — M. Todd Henderson, Eric Zitzewitz and Larry Hatheway — to weigh in on how the market might react if Trump gets the boot. Impeachment is already accounted for in stock prices M. Todd Hendersonis a professor of law and economics at the University of Chicago. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Political games in Washington typically don't matter very much on Wall Street. The fundamental value of a stock is based on the cash that the underlying company is expected to generate over its lifetime, discounted to present value. Therefore, the value of the stock market is simply the sum of the values of all the individual stocks (or, for an index, like the Dow, the value of the stocks in the index). If businesses expect to make more money, more investors … [Read more...] about How would the stock market react if Trump is impeached? Economists weigh in
Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings. SUBSCRIBE President Donald Trump claimed Thursday that if he were impeached, Americans’ retirement savings could vanish, a warning financial planners dismiss as fear-mongering. A day after two of his closest associates faced legal reckoning, the embattled president asserted on a Fox News morning program, “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash," and, “I think everybody would be very poor.” In reality, investment pros say, Americans shouldn’t worry about the health of their 401(k)s. “What he’s saying is nonsense in the context of how investment professionals look at this,” Doug Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth, told NBC News. “Markets aren’t sentimental.” There are a couple of historical precedents: Watergate, and the impeachment of Bill Clinton by the House of Representatives in 1998. … [Read more...] about No, Trump’s impeachment wouldn’t kill your retirement plan
Sections SEARCH Skip to content Skip to site index Subscribe Log In Subscribe Log In Today’s Paper Advertisement DealBook Supported by Aug. 22, 2018 Good Wednesday morning. Bloomberg has turned Brexit into an oddly addictive 8-bit game . (Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here .) Two big strikes against the Trump agenda President Trump’s White House has been dealt its most serious blows yet. The guilty plea by Michael Cohen, his former personal lawyer, and the conviction of Paul Manafort, his former campaign manager, will rock the administration. Especially damaging: Mr. Cohen’s admission to paying a porn star hush money at Mr. Trump’s request, apparently violating campaign finance laws. How much will that hurt Mr. Trump’s ability to govern — and to continue deregulating business? Well, legal and political experts agree that Robert Mueller probably won’t seek to indict Mr. Trump … [Read more...] about DealBook Briefing: Trump’s Wounded. Will Business Feel the Pain?