The S&P 500 is down about 3.7% year-to-date as of market open on Dec. 17, 2018. Market analysts have begun to very vocally sound the alarm about the possibility of a bear market — but if you listen close enough, you'll also hear whispers about a looming recession. There are certainly ways that investors can protect themselves against potential losses in the event of a market downturn. Still, market capitulation , or the phenomenon in which investors give up earlier gains when they sell off their positions out of panic, remains a real possibility. To make matters worse, it could be some of the biggest players in the financial world — hedge funds — who end up leading the trend. Where Do Hedge Funds Piece Into a Market Sell-Off? Hedge funds could contribute to a prolonged stock sell-off into the future. According to a recent report by Bloomberg , Sundial Capital Research found that hedge funds as a group bought heavily into American equities, and moreover that many of … [Read more...] about Why Hedge Funds May Still Have More to Contribute to a Stock Sell-Off
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What Makes Economies Strong?
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Over the last year a number of you have pointed out the odd typo or two in my Sunday note. For example, one eagle eyed reader in Brazil registered that I had written ‘South China Sean’ rather than ‘South China Sea’, which is a Freudian slip of sorts. The real reason the quality of the note may have slipped is that this time last year my ‘editor’ Nicholas Benachi, passed away. In addition to being a good friend, he made sure that the logic and quality of the note were up to scratch. One of his favourite greetings and ‘sign-offs’ was ‘Strength and Honour’, which may have been inspired by his love of bushido and his family’s ties to Greece, not to mention a sweeping appreciation of history. It is a phrase that comes to mind more and more often in a world where the moral pendulum is swinging wildly, and I often find myself using it as a maxim to scrutinise people, places and projects. Here are a few examples. Strength … [Read more...] about What Makes Economies Strong?
Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin The big spike in the Payroll data (+517K) was out of kilter with what has been occurring in the rest of the economy and in other labor market data. Financial markets always shoot first and ask questions later, so, on Friday, equity markets fell and bond yields rose on the fear that the Fed would now have a great excuse to raise interest rates even further than what was already priced in. The far-right hand sides of the above charts show the violent up spikes in the yields of the 10-Yr. and 2-Yr. T-Notes on Friday (February 3). As reported by various reliable sources with deep research capabilities, most or all of the +517K job gains wasn’t due to new job creation, but to benchmark revisions, seasonal adjustments, and population controls , all keywords for what we can only describe as statistical magic . Morgan Stanley MS concluded that without the population adjustments, the Household Survey (which was up an even … [Read more...] about Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data
Checks & Imbalances: Hunter Biden’s Art Price Tag Is ‘Pretty Much Unheard Of’
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Today we look at Hunter Biden’s controversial art career and examine the Trump Organization’s recent job postings. This is the web edition of the free Checks & Imbalances newsletter, usually sent to inboxes on Fridays. You can subscribe here . Please support this work, if you can, by subscribing to Forbes . Hunter Biden’s Art Price Tag Is ‘Pretty Much Unheard Of’ Reporter Carlie Porterfield joins “Forbes Newsroom” to discuss the Hunter Biden art saga . Tip Me Any tips or suggestions? Email me at [email protected] or call/SMS/Signal 202.804.2744. Follow me on Mastodon at @[email protected] . Thanks! Senate Democrat Michael Bennet Asks Apple And Google To Ban TikTok From App Stores “Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (D) has called on Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores , citing concerns that the app could share private American user data with … [Read more...] about Checks & Imbalances: Hunter Biden’s Art Price Tag Is ‘Pretty Much Unheard Of’
The FTX US Proposal That Shook Congress And The Crypto Derivatives World
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin May 2, 2022 4:41pm ET: Story updated. Last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sought public comment on a request from FTX US to modify its derivatives clearing organization (DCO) license to offer a new kind of crypto margin trading to U.S. retail customers. FTX US is requesting the ability to use a new kind of ‘non-intermediated’ model of crypto derivatives trading, meaning there is no intermediary used to hold customer’s funds. As crypto exchanges typically take collateral from the customer directly, the FTX US model would directly custody the margin from retail customers and liquidate positions held by the exchange on a 24-7-365 basis. Under the FTX US model, the customer’s positions will be reviewed for potential margin calls every 30 seconds. Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX, recently described this model to Congress as, “...a 24/7 risk engine that is unlike the traditional system where there … [Read more...] about The FTX US Proposal That Shook Congress And The Crypto Derivatives World
Reflections on Marcos’ 1st 6 months
ILLUSTRATION BY ALBERT RODRIGUEZ It’s been six months since President Marcos was sworn into office. If we liken Mr. Marcos’ six-year term to the well-loved game of basketball, we are now in the second half of the first of six games. The first half of Game 1 was filled with many challenges. A Pulse Asia survey last September 2022 showed that the top concerns of Filipinos are controlling inflation, increasing the pay of workers and creating more jobs. Unfortunately, these continue to burden Filipinos into halftime of Game 1. Before the first “game” ends on June 30, 2023, we’d like to share some of the administration’s notable wins during its first six months and some reflections on how to sustain the fight against these challenges. Wins First among Mr. Marcos’ wins is the appointment of credible and experienced economic managers. This means that we have a strong team to overcome the pandemic’s lingering effects on the economy. Second, several executive actions were made … [Read more...] about Reflections on Marcos’ 1st 6 months
How A Heat Pump Can Deflate Your Utility Bills Big Time
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin If you need to replace your gas furnace or air conditioning, you now have a new opportunity to save big on your utility bills. If you can replace your old heating-cooling units with a heat pump, you can qualify for up to $8,000 on the spot in a federal credit. Although the credit is indexed to your income, it’s a major deal on something that will heat and cool your home in one unit. “These heating and cooling systems, once considered useful only in warmer climates, have in the past few years become far more sophisticated,” writes Robert Gebelhoff in The Washington Post . “They are now the best chance we have to phase out fossil fuels as a means of heating and could set the stage for a climate policy revolution.” “For every unit of electricity a heat pump uses,” Gebelhoff notes, “it can generate 2.5 to 5.5 units of heat, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. In other words, heat pumps have an … [Read more...] about How A Heat Pump Can Deflate Your Utility Bills Big Time
Saturday, February 4. Russia’s War On Ukraine: Daily News And Information From Ukraine
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin Dispatches from Ukraine. Day 346. As Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues and the war rages on, reliable sources of information are critical. Forbes gathers information and provides updates on the situation. National. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says a “technological accident” of unspecified nature occurred at a regional Odesa high voltage substation today following repeated attacks by Russian forces. Much of the city of Odesa and its environs are now undergoing emergency blackouts. Damage was so severe, particularly to critical infrastructure, that speedy restoration of power is impossible even with round-the-clock repair efforts. Shymhal has ordered the Ministry of Energy to deliver all available high-output generators to Odesa within 24 hours. Russia released 116 Ukrainian soldiers, including Mariupol defenders, Kherson partisans and Bakhmut snipers, in the latest prisoner-of-war exchange … [Read more...] about Saturday, February 4. Russia’s War On Ukraine: Daily News And Information From Ukraine
US downs Chinese balloon, a flashpoint in US-China tensions
By ZEKE MILLER, MICHAEL BALSAMO, COLLEEN LONG, AAMER MADHANI and LOLITA C. BALDOR (Associated Press) WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States on Saturday downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon off the Carolina coast on orders from President Joe Biden after it traversed sensitive military sites across North America, becoming the latest flashpoint in tensions between Washington and Beijing. Biden said he wanted the balloon downed on Wednesday, but was advised that the best time for the operation would be when it was over water. Military officials determined that the bringing it down over land from an altitude of 60,000 feet would pose an undue risk to people on the ground. The balloon was spotted Saturday morning over the Carolinas as it approached the Atlantic coast. At about 2:40 p.m. EST, an F-22 fighter jet fired a missile at the balloon, puncturing it while it was about 6 nautical miles off the coast near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Pentagon officials said. Officials said … [Read more...] about US downs Chinese balloon, a flashpoint in US-China tensions
2022 Year In Review: Crypto Policy Experiences Massive Turbulence In Congress Amid TerraUSD And FTX Failures
Share to Twitter Share to Linkedin What Happened In 2022 Even before a months-long winter engulfed the digital-assets market, 2022 was shaping up as the year that Washington began to get serious about regulating the cryptocurrency business. That resolve was bolstered throughout the year by a series of calamities that included a massive stablecoin failure of terraUSD and the associated luna, with contagion effects that impacted BlockFi, Celsius Network and Voyager Digital exchange that called into question the ability of crypto exchanges to be digital asset custodians that would protect investors’ assets. Essentially, the crypto industry managed to recreate the same risks of the traditional banking system, in which the institutions that were responsible for holding customer’s assets were simultaneously lending funds, leading to leverage, liquidity and capital conflicts. Before the year could end, the third-largest exchange, FTX – previously seen as a … [Read more...] about 2022 Year In Review: Crypto Policy Experiences Massive Turbulence In Congress Amid TerraUSD And FTX Failures