US midterm elections 2018 live: Massive early turnout as America votes on the future of Congress

Voter turnout, normally lower when the White House is not at stake, could be the highest for a midterm election in 50 years, experts predicted.

About 40 million early votes were likely cast, said Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who tracks the figures.

In the last such congressional elections in 2014, there were 27.4 million early votes.

“I have worked at this poll the last three elections and this is the biggest turnout ever. We usually hope for 200 voters for the entire day, but by 9 o’clock we already have had 69,” said Bev Heidgerken, 67, a volunteer at a polling place in Davenport, Iowa.

Hello from the nation’s capital where it has been pouring down with rain for the last few hours, Ben Riley-Smith writes from Washington, DC

Portentous, perhaps – but for which side? 

Happy voting day from Washington, where it is raining cats and dogs. #Midterms2018 #ElectionDay pic.twitter.com/n388m4QU6p

— Ben Riley-Smith (@benrileysmith) November 6, 2018

While Americans stream to the polls in what looks like historic numbers, it is worth unpacking one of the most likely scenarios – the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives. 

Such a result would hurt Donald Trump’s presidency in three obvious ways….

One – Laws. Mr Trump’s domestic legislative agenda would grind to a halt. He needs majority votes in both the House and the Senate to pass any legislation. That has been hard enough for the last two years when Republicans held both bodies. If the Democrats take the House, that becomes even harder. 

What would that mean? It will be harder to secure funding for the US-Mexico border wall, for starters. That was a key Trump election pledge which he is yet to properly deliver. Any hopes of a second tax cut – Mr Trump has floated a 10 per cent cut for the middle classes during the campaign, though with very little detail – would also be dimmed. 

Two – Investigations. When a party takes control of the House they also take control of the House’s committees. The committees have the power to launch investigations and subpoena witnesses to give evidence. In the last two years, Republicans have been able to block any probes that could damage Mr Trump. That ends if Democrats take the House. 

A list of possible Democrat investigations drawn up by Republicans include probes into the president’s tax returns, dealings with Russia, migrant family separation policy, dismissal of FBI director James Comey, travel ban, response to the Puerto Rico hurricane and much, much more. 

Three – Impeachment. This is still a very distant prospect. Few leading Democrats are publicly proposing to start impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump. In fact it has been the Republicans playing up such a threat, hoping it will motive their base to vote in the midterms. 

However there is no doubt that, on the raw numbers, the chance of impeachment rises if the Democrats hold the House. It is here where impeachment proceedings would begin. Having political opponents in charge increases the threat to Mr Trump.

But one final point. There are whispers that losing the House could, in a Machiavellian way, actually help Mr Trump in his quest for re-election in 2020. He would finally have a tangible ‘enemy on the inside’ in Washington who he can blame all his administration’s shortcomings on. 

Beto O’Rourke meeting voters at a polling station in El Paso, Texas, coffee mug in hand pic.twitter.com/gNj0HIO3DS

— nick allen (@nickallen789) November 6, 2018

From Nevada, Rob Crilly writes:

Dennis Hof is the favourite to win the state senate seat in Nevada’s thirty-sixth district. The “Trump of Pahrump” and owner of multiple of legal brothels used all his gifts of self-promotion to shrug off allegations of rape and misogyny, using book deals and TV shows to create a winning public image. The Republican was one of the most compelling characters on the ballot even before he died three weeks before polling day.

The 72-year-old star of HBO’s Cathouse was found dead after a night of campaigning and partying – Joe Arpaio, the controversial sheriff and Trump favourite, was among the guests – at his Love Ranch brothel. (Not to be confused with the nearby Moonlite Bunnyranch.)

His name remains on the ballot and his deceased status seems not to have affected his chances of winning. Which means should he emerge victorious that local officials will choose another Republican to fill the seat.

(See 1:39pm…!)

Friend,

I am forwarding you an email I sent on November 8, 2016…

I asked all of our supporters across America to make ONE FINAL CONTRIBUTION to help in the most important races that would decide the election, and ultimately, the fate of our nation.

Over 500,000 supporters stepped up. And if they never did, I would not be writing to you today as your President. 

I will never forget these patriots.

So today I ask you to make one more EMERGENCY contribution and again be remembered as someone who believed in us despite the media’s predictions.

More from Nick Allen in El Paso, Texas at a polling station with Beto O’Rourke.

Mr O’Rourke said he thought first time voters would propel him to victory over Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

He said: “I’m so grateful to all of these first time voters who are going to decide this election.

“Voting among those aged 18 to 29 is up 500 per cent in Texas from the last midterm election. I can’t count how many people have come up and said this is the first election they will vote in.

“We just met a young man right now who said ‘You’re the first person I ever voted for, so it feels good, feels really good.”

Mr O’Rourke planned to spend the rest of election day going to polling locations and bringing food and water to volunteers.

“Then after the clock strikes 7.01pm and the polls close we’ll get together as a family and look at some of the returns,” he said,

After voting Mr O’Rourke and his wife Amy walked their children to school nearby, stopping to greet voters along the way.

Turning to his young son Mr O’Rourke said: “What do you make of all this? It’s a bit nuts ain’t it?”

Beto O’Rouke, the Democrat candidate in Texas, the most closely watched senate race in the country, was up at the crack of dawn to vote, Nick Allen writes in El Paso, Texas.

Mr O’Rourke, coffee mug in hand, arrived with his family at a polling station at a community college a short walk from the Mexican border and the Rio Grande.

Speaking after casting his ballot he said: “Texas is not going to be defined by our fears, we’re going to be governed by our ambitions.

“We’re going to be focused on the future. We just do not care about the differences between us right now. We want Republicans and Democrats and Independents alike to come together and do something great for this country

“That’s what I’ve heard from the people of Texas over the last 22 months. That’s what folks are voting for today.”

Asked “Are you expecting to win?” Mr O’Rourke replied “Yes!”

He added: “I don’t have a poll, I don’t have a pollster. But I’ve traveled to every single county in Texas, listened to everybody, have so many amazing volunteers knocking on millions of doors, making that human to human connection that we’re in such desperate need of at this moment of division in this country.

“It’s bringing people together, I feel it. Yep, feels good.”

Joe Biden has just voted, at a high school near his home in Wilmington, Delaware.

He has been one of the most high-profile campaigners ahead of the midterms, and speculation is growing that he will run for the presidency in 2020.

I don’t know and I still don’t know.

I think I’ll make a decision in early January.

Asked when he’ll make a formal announcement of his decision, he says – again – that he doesn’t know.

This is the single most important election of my lifetime.

It’s not just about single issues, it’s the values of the country. I really believe this.

Politics has got too nasty. It’s too base. This appeal to nativism, nationalism – phony nationalism – racism; it has to stop. We have to put some brakes on it.

Biden is asked how he thinks it’ll go today.

He says he supports Nancy Pelosi as the House leader, saying she has “done a hell of a job”, but that it’s for them to decide.

I’ll be dumbfounded it we lose the House. I think we’ll pick up six governor seats in the Mid West.

I hope Brett in Tennessee will pull it out. I think we’re still in play for the Senate – I’d say it’s 50:50.

I think we’ll see a number of Republicans, when this is over, distance themselves from Trump in terms of the harsh rhetoric.

He says he thinks there a lot of really good candidates for 2020 – mentioning Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans.

And how does Joe Biden spend election night?

With my family, watching on a big TV.

I’ve already picked up the phone and spoke to around 25 candidates, wishing them well.

I don’t think Trump learns lessons. He has one speed; what is good for Donald Trump. It doesn’t matter. 

Asked if he thinks Trump will challenge the legitimacy of the vote if he loses, he laughs.

Of course he will! He’s still arguing over inauguration crowd sizes! He’s… he’s an interesting guy.

Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, has just voted with his wife. He’s brought his children along.

He is hoping to be the first black governor of Florida.

Us winning tonight will send a message to Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis that the politics of hatred and division has ended. We’ll worry about history later.

GILLUM VOTES: A crowd gathers at a Tallahassee, FL church to watch gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum cast his v… https://t.co/5Yf6JUVTHh

— NowThis (@nowthisnews) November 6, 2018

He continues:

We’re extremely excited. This has been a long journey – 21 months, across the country.

We were there yesterday in the Pan Handle, talking to folks who might not vote for me, but that’s OK – I want them to know we plan to work on their behalf too.

We’re going to grow an economy where people can work one job rather than two or three to make ends meet. Where folks can earn, and take a vacation every once in a while.

When we talk about a recovery, we want a recovery for everyone, not just the few.

Pamela Aguirre, 77, is in tears on MSNBC as she talks about why she’s voted for Beto O’Rourke in Texas – he’s aiming to oust Ted Cruz from the Senate.

“He’s everything that Donald Trump isn’t,” she said, beaming through tears in her orange woolly hat, and proudly showing off her “Beto for Senate” t-shirt.

She’s wheeled her oxygen tank down to the polling station in El Paso – O’Rourke’s hometown.

What would it mean for you if he won?

“We want him to win. And we’ll be watching the tv tonight.

“It will mean so much – by gosh, that we still have a chance to have a decent country, with decent values, and decent people.”

Andrew Gillum has just entered the polling station in Tallahassee – the state capital of Florida.

He’s aiming to become the first black governor of the state, in one of the most eagerly-watched – and vicious – campaigns in the US.

My colleague Rozina Sabur explains why it matters here.

She writes:

An anti-establishment Republican backed by Donald Trump and a black Democrat endorsed by Bernie Sanders will face each other in Florida’s gubernatorial election in November.

The race, in the country’s biggest swing state, is a sign of the increasing polarisation among voters during the Trump administration with sharp divides over issues like immigration, the environment and health care.

Florida is the country’s third most populous state after California and Texas and will be a decisive vote in the next presidential election, where the US president won by just one percentage point in 2016.

It’s been a celeb-heavy election campaign, with Taylor Swift, Kanye West, Rihanna and Oprah all weighing in.

Cynthia Nixon, the Sex and the City actress who gave Andrew Cuomo a good run for his money in the race for New York governor, is urging people to get out and vote this morning.

Get out and vote today everyone! If you don’t know where, read this. https://t.co/1Mrg9WhbKI

— Cynthia Nixon (@CynthiaNixon) November 6, 2018

 Chrissy Teigen is doing her best to get out the vote.

yep. they’re voting. you guys need to, too. #voteblue https://t.co/DnSuKrWZyN

— christine teigen (@chrissyteigen) November 5, 2018

 And Cher – never one for emoji understatement or, indeed, any understatement at all - believes this election is “life or death”.

I have been alive through 13 Presidencies and I never thought my vote 🗳would be a matter of life or death. Given this administration’s disregard for pre-existing conditions, climate change, gun reform and so much more, it is life or death. 🙏🏻Please Vote🙏🏻 https://t.co/CHKIQMCowm

— Cher (@cher) November 5, 2018

Harriet –

I want to tell you something that will not come as a surprise to many of you. And that is this:

If turnout across the country is large today, if young people and working people come out and vote, then I believe Democrats will elect a number of progressive governors, state legislatures, will gain control of the House and possibly the Senate, as well.

If turnout is low today, then right-wing Republicans are going to keep control of many of the levels of government they currently occupy.

So our job today, if you have not already, is to vote — and to encourage the people you know to do the same.

Today’s election is the most important midterm election in the modern history of the United States.

Together, we can put an end to the reactionary Trump agenda and move our country forward to rebuilding the declining middle class. We can create a Congress which stands for economic, political, racial and environmental justice, not for oligarchy or authoritarianism.

Those are the stakes.

– but will that translate to the “blue wave” the Democrats are so hoping for?

President Trump has the *worst pre-election approval rating in modern history* immediately before his first midterm election via new @CNN poll and Gallup trend:

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) November 5, 2018

Polls start closing at 6pm ET (11pm UK) in Kentucky.

But things will really get rolling an hour later, when polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina and Virginia.

Another wave of numbers will begin coming in after 7:30pm (12:30am UK)  from North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.

A big chunk of data will come after 8pm and 9pm ET when states such as Texas, New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania begin reporting.

The 11pm (4am UK) batch of states includes California, home to several competitive congressional races.

Alaska, where polls close at 1am on Wednesday (6am UK), will end the night.

Good morning from a foggy Philadelphia in east Pennsylvania. I’ve come here because the Democrats’ path to control of the House runs through this state. Nationally, the Dems need to flip 23 Republican controlled districts to win the House of Representatives – and four of those possible gains are located in this state.

Why is Pennsylvania so competitive? First, it’s a bellwether area. Generally speaking Pennsylvania is Democrat: we expect the Dems to win the governorship and a senate seat easily today. But Trump surprised everyone by winning the state in 2016, thanks to support from rural areas and “rust-belt” industrial towns. Pennsylvania is the archetype of “two Americas” politics: liberal suburbs and big cities vs the populist coalition. Advantage is thought to currently lie with the liberals, thanks in part to the horrendous shooting at a synagogue that has been blamed on Trump’s rhetoric.

But there’s a simpler reason why this state could send so more Democrats to the House this year: redistricting.

For the past seven years the Republicans have cheated. There’s no other way of putting it. In 2011 they redrew the congressional map to give themselves a huge advantage, burying islands of Democrat support in vast seas of Republican red, giving the Republicans 13 out of 18 seats in three straight elections. The state supreme court has now ruled that map unconstitutional. The new districts are geographically coherent and balanced, forcing Republican incumbents to defend new seats with new voters. Arguably, the Pennsylvania supreme court has handed the Democrats one-fifth of the representatives they need to take the House.

I’m going to have some coffee and go in search of a competitive district. See you later!

Read more from Tim:  The best result for America is if nobody wins the midterms

Their campaign adverts feature pledges of undying loyalty to Donald Trump, commitments to save America from socialism, and even lessons for their kids on how to build walls, writes Nick Allen, Washington Editor. 

From the candidate promising to round up illegal immigrants in his own truck, to the one who dressed his toddler in a Make America Great Again onesie, they have echoed, and amplified, Mr Trump’s rhetoric on every issue.

The Republican primary season earlier this year, when these candidates were selected, demonstrated Mr Trump’s tightening stranglehold on the party, with politicians in his image being chosen over more established, moderate figures.

Going into the mid-term elections those firebrand “Trump mini-mes” will carry the Republican torch, hoping to be swept to victory by the president’s fabled base.

Loyalty has already been rewarded, with Mr Trump lauding his imitators on Twitter, and travelling to their states for campaign events.

On Nov 6 they will discover whether their constituencies want homegrown versions of Mr Trump, or if one is enough.

Read the full article here

There are around 250 million Americans who are eligible to vote, but turnout in midterm elections is typically about 40 percent.

This is much lower than presidential elections, where turnout has hit around 60 percent in recent contests.

The elections will mark the first nationwide vote since Russia targeted state election systems in the 2016 US presidential race but federal, state and local officials have sought to reassure the public that their voting systems are secure.

So far, there have been no signs that Russia or any other foreign agency has tried to launch cyber-attacks against voting systems in any state, according to federal authorities.

For Donald Trump and the Republican Party it seems there is something rotten in the suburbs of Virginia, writes Nick Allen, Washington Editor. 

Going into the midterm elections, marking Mr Trump’s first two years in the White House, nowhere should be more staunchly Republican than the state’s Loudon County.

In this, the wealthiest of all America’s 3,007 counties, average income is $134,464. A Confederate statue stands proudly in the middle of Leesburg, its main town. The headquarters of the National Rifle Association is a short drive away.

But amid the leafy cul-de-sacs rebellion is stirring. On the manicured lawns, Democrat signs are proliferating like rapacious weeds.

Read the full article here.

It’s going down to the wire in the Texas senate race, probably the most watched individual contest of the midterms, Nick Allen writes in El Paso, Texas.

El Paso, a sleepy city on the Mexican border, is the home town of Beto O’Rourke, the Democrat candidate.

“Betomania” erupted on Monday night as Mr O’Rourke held his final election eve rally at a university there.

The skateboard loving, former punk rocker was introduced by a Mariachi band and then bounded on stage, high-fiving supporters.

As he spoke Mr O’Rourke was drowned out by cheers. Some in the packed auditorium were weeping as they waved “Viva Beto” signs.

“We are days away from achieving something incredible in Texas,” Mr O’Rourke, said, his voice hoarse from months of campaigning. “If we keep this up then tomorrow night we will be celebrating the victory of our lifetimes.”

He called it an election that “will define the future not just of Texas, but of this country, not just this generation, but every generation that follows”. With a thumbs up he shouted: “Let’s win this!”

Outside the rally Mr O’Rourke told journalists he would campaign until the last minute.

Putting his arm around his wife Amy, he said: “We’re giving it all we’ve got, as we have done from the very first day.”

Jaymee Rivas, a student in the crowd, said: “It was very emotional. Being a millennial he gives me so much more hope than I recently had.”

Nearly five million people have already cast ballots in early voting in Texas amid record turnout.

Polls show Mr O’Rourke three points behind Ted Cruz, the Republican incumbent, in a state where a Republican loss had, until recently, been unthinkable.

Mr Cruz’s final day events included a stop at the Redneck Country Club, a saloon in suburban Houston

He called Mr O’Rourke a “crazy left wing activist” to chants of “Veto Beto”.

Mr Cruz, 47, said: “The far left is angry and they are coming after jobs, they are coming after freedom, they are coming after security.

“The economy in the state of Texas booming. Who in their right mind would want to screw it up?”

Mr O’Rourke built a $70 million war chest, becoming the best funded US senate candidate in history, and vastly outspending Mr Cruz in what is the most expensive senate race of 2018.

At 6am EST, Americans began entering polling stations to vote in the 2018 midterm elections. 

They mark the first major voter test of Donald Trump’s presidency, with control of Congress at stake.

As polling stations opened around 20 minutes ago on the East Coast, Republicans were keenly aware that losing their majority will hamstring his political agenda over the next two years.

Even at 6am in Indiana, there were huge queues at stations as people waited to cast their vote before heading to work. 

It’s Election Day and I’m in line at 6:05 AM…..probably should have voted early. It seems to be a great turnout at the polls both early and late. #VoteTuesday pic.twitter.com/2CI1INPSMO

— Matt Hines (@matthines10) November 6, 2018

Immigration has been a pillar of the Trump presidency. 

Harriet Alexander, The Telegraph’s US Correspondent, reports on travel bans, immigration in numbers and one of the most contentious topics of his time in the White House – the Mexico-US border wall. 

Perhaps the most explosive strand to Donald Trump’s presidency has been his approach to foreign policy. 

From tearing up the US-Iran deal to his commitment to wipe out Islamic State and from the dramatic shift in diplomacy with North Korea to the lingering issue of alleged Russian collusion, The Telegraph’s US Editor Ben Riley-Smith analyses the president’s tenure so far.

With Americans divided either side of the abortion debate, the liberal left are rising against Mr Trump and his supreme court – the most Conservative for decades.

Rozina Sabur, The Telegraph’s Washington Correspondent, reports on the pro-life and pro-choice arguments from the only abortion clinic left in Kentucky. 

Almost two years ago, The president entered the Oval Office and vowed to shake up American trade. 

The Telegraph’s US Editor Ben Riley-Smith reports on how Mr Trump has remained true to his word. 

During Donald Trump’s presidency, there have been a number of high-profile mass shootings, including the Las Vegas and Parkland massacres. 

Here, The Telegraph’s Washington Editor Nick Allen takes a look at the emotive issue of gun control in the US. 

Here are the timings, state-by-state, of when polling stations open and close for the midterms:

As Texans were casting their early ballots last week for today’s midterm elections, a few of them encountered something disturbing, writes Laurence Dodds, US Tech Reporter.

While inputting their choices on the electronic voting machines used in about a third of Texas’s counties, they had chosen Democrats for every position – but when asked to check their ballot at the end of the process, they found some of their votes had been switched to the Republicans.

Read the full article here.

Disgruntled voters often use midterm elections to punish the party in power. The president’s party has lost an average of 32 seats in the House and two in the Senate in every midterm since the American Civil War.

Democratic President Bill Clinton faced a six-year battle to get his policies through Congress when the Republicans took control of both the House and Senate in 1994.

The Democrats retook both chambers in 2006 – allowing President Barack Obama to push through his policy agenda for the first two years of his presidency.

However, the Republicans won back the House in 2010 which placed a significant curb on his ability to pass key legislation for the rest of his time in office.

In 2014, the Republicans also regained control of the Senate, boosting their House majority to its largest since 1929 along the way.

Democrats are currently enjoying an eight-point lead in polls  and with a record number of women, veterans and ethnic minorities running for office, the face of the US Congress could look very different in January.

However, the Democrats’ success is based on the party’s ability to mobilise their base:  the midterm electorate is traditionally whiter, older and more conservative.

The economy, immigration and impeachment are the issues getting most play on the campaign trail.

The US economy is booming, with low unemployment rates and rising wages. However Mr Trump’s tax cuts for corporations have increased the country’s deficit by 33 per cent in the last year to $895 billion.

Immigration is a divisive issue, with Democrats keen to highlight the Trump administration’s decision to separate migrant children from their parents as part of its “zero-tolerance” policy. They hope it will entice younger voters and minorities to vote against the president’s party. 

Republicans have warned Democrats would like to see immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) officials scrapped, which they say will lead to weak borders as they appeal to voters.

Ultimately, this election will be seen as a temperature test for Mr Trump ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

This has already played out in this summer’s primaries – where party members pick their candidates – with pro-Trump, anti-establishment figures winning against the Republican’s old guard. 

On the Democrat side, populist progressives who are vocal in their opposition to the president – even calling for his impeachment – have been gaining ground on the party’s centrists.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be voted on in November. Representatives serve two-year terms so the entire house will face re-election in 2020.

Some 35 out of the Senate’s 100 seats will be on the ballot and 36 state governors are up for election. Senators hold six-year terms.

There are also a number of state-wide and local offices being elected on the same day.

How will they affect Donald Trump’s presidency? 

The elections will shape US politics for at least the next two years.

A Republican-controlled Congress will make the final two years of Mr Trump’s first term much smoother – giving him the power to continue funding his border wall with Mexico, pass further tax cuts and make another attempt to repeal Obamacare.

If Democrats regain control, they will fiercely oppose a number of Mr Trump’s key policies. If they win enough seats, the Democrats could kill the Republican legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. 

A Democratic majority would also see the party gain seats on Congressional committees with the power to investigate the Trump administration.

This year’s state-wide races are incredibly important too, since they will give the party in office power over the 2021 redistricting process – the system by which voting areas are decided.

Republicans are most likely to lose control of the House of Representatives as all 435 seats are up for election. Dozens of Republican representatives are retiring and the Democrats only need around 24 more seats to take control of the lower chamber.

Mr Trump’s party is likely to retain its majority in the Senate as only 35 of the 100 seats are up for election, 26 of which are already held by Democrats.

Democrats would have to win all its Senate races and pick up two Republican seats in order to swing the majority – a tall order.

November’s midterm elections will mark two years since Donald Trump’s shock election victory – the first test of how his Republican party is faring in the eyes of the American public.

The midterms is the name given to the combination of elections for the US Congress, governorships and local races that take place every two years.

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives and the Senate – the two chambers which make up the US Congress. But pundits have suggested the elections may see a so-called “blue wave” of Democrats sweeping into power.

A liberal base hoping to derail Mr Trump’s agenda has energised activists in key races, out-fundraising and out-polling a host of Republican incumbents.

The elections mark the mid point in a president’s four-year term – and this year they will be held on Tuesday November 6.

Although Mr Trump is not on the ballot, in many ways the results will be seen as a referendum on his accomplishments and how voters feel about the US president.

To read more on why the Midterms matter, read Rozina Sabur’s analysis here.