The City’s best stock analysts: Numis bags most awards as Goldman’s Joyce crowned top stock picker

Numis Securities has come out as the biggest winner this year in the battle of the sell-side equity analysts, although Goldman Sachs’ Rob Joyce has the strongest track record of any individual analyst, according to awards to be announced this week.

Analysts from Paternoster Square-headquartered Numis won 12 awards in the Thomson Reuters Starmine analyst awards across different categories, City A.M. can reveal.

Goldman’s retail analyst, Rob Joyce, was the best stock pickers in London during the past year, the data show, with an excess return for his tipped stocks of 25.4 per cent over the average.

Only Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s banks and financial services analyst, Philip Middleton, matched Joyce in recording an excess return of more than 20 per cent, at 24.8 per cent.

The City’s best stock pickers

Rank	Analyst	Broker	Overall Excess Return	Primary Coverage Industries
1	Rob Joyce	Goldman Sachs	25.4%	Retail
2	Philip Middleton	BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research	24.8%	Banks and financial services
3	Gregor Kuglitsch	UBS	18.4%	Construction; consumer and business services
4	Rahim Karim	Liberum	18.3%	Consumer and business services; banks and financial services
5	James Hamilton	Numis Securities	18.3%	Banks and financial services
6	Daud Khan	Canaccord Genuity	16.8%	Technology equipment and services
7	Phillip Carroll	Shore Capital	15.5%	Food and household products; retail
8	Gavin Jago	Peel Hunt	15.2%	Construction; real estate; consumer and business services
9	Paul Cuddon	Numis Securities	14.8%	Health care
10	Richard Edwards	Goldman Sachs	13.6%	Retail

Meanwhile, SG Securities’ retail analyst Anne Critchlow came top of the pile for earnings estimate accuracy, followed by Numis’s construction and real estate analyst Christopher Millington.

A strong performance on stock picking and earnings estimates will likely play an increasingly important role for sell-side analysts, after the Mifid II regulations this year shone the spotlight on the industry. Firms must now be transparent about how they charge clients for research, with industry figures predicting the sector could shrink as investors focus on value.

While Numis came out as the winner overall, UBS and Investec Securities also enjoyed strong firm-wide performances, with eight awards apiece.

Best earnings estimates by analyst

Rank	Analyst	Broker	Primary Coverage Industries
1	Anne Critchlow	SG Securities	Retail
2	Christopher Millington	Numis Securities	Construction; real estate
3	Assad Malic	Citi Research	Retail
4	Daniel Garrod	Barclays	Banks and financial services
5	Gregor Kuglitsch	UBS	Construction; consumer and business services
6	James Grzinic	Jefferies International Limited	Retail
7	Michael Mitchell	Davy Stockbrokers	Consumer and business services
8	David Pleming	HSBC Global Research	Metals and mining
9	Christopher Fremantle	Morgan Stanley	Real estate; construction
10	Patrick Wellington	Morgan Stanley	Media

Best earnings estimates by industry

Rank	Industry	Analyst	Broker
1	Banks and financial services	Daniel Garrod	Barclays
1	Construction	Gregor Kuglitsch	UBS
1	Consumer and business services	Justin Jordan	Jefferies International Limited
1	Energy	Brian Gallagher	Investec Securities
1	Equipment and machinery	Robert Davies	Morgan Stanley
1	Food and household products	Komal Dhillon	J.P. Morgan Cazenove
1	Health care	David Amsellem	Piper Jaffray
1	Hotels, restaurants and leisure	Joseph Thomas	HSBC Global Research
1	Insurance	Barrie Cornes	Panmure Gordon
1	Media	Patrick Wellington	Morgan Stanley
1	Metals and mining	David Pleming	HSBC Global Research
1	Real estate	Christopher Fremantle	Morgan Stanley
1	Retail	Anne Critchlow	SG Securities
1	Technology equipment and services	James Goodman	Barclays
1	Transportation	Joe Spooner	Jefferies International Limited
1	Utilities	Roshan Patel	Investec Securities

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